Ray Dalio: We’re Heading Into Very, Very Dark Times! America & The UK’s Decline Is Coming!/雷·達利奧：我們正走向非常、非常黑暗的時代！美國與英國的衰退即將到来！/The Diary Of A CEO

Gemini：

出處：The Diary Of A CEO

英文原文 (English Original)	中文翻譯 (Traditional Chinese Translation)
Ray Dalio: I Predicted The 2008 CRASH, I Know What Comes Next!	雷·達利奧：我預測了 2008 年的崩盤，我知道接下來會發生什麼！
Are you seeing signs that we're in an AI bubble and therefore a economic collapse?	你是否看到我們正處於人工智慧泡沫之中，並因此面臨經濟崩潰的跡象？
The classic signs and that has implications for the economy and it's bad for the society and everybody loses money but we also have some other things that are going on that happen around the same time and I can go through these if you want please.	經典的跡象表明，這會對經濟產生影響，對社會不利，每個人都會蒙受損失。但同時，還有一些其他的事情也在發生……如果你想了解這些，我可以一一講解。
So what I'm saying is clear because I'm a global macro investor and you were one of the few managers to foresee the great financial crisis.	所以我的意思很清楚，因為我是位全球宏觀投資者，而你是少數幾個預見這場大金融危機的基金經理人之一。
Yes.	是的。
And so right now we're very excited about AI and we should be very excited because it's going to be revolutionary changes [music] but it's creeping into almost everything.	所以現在我們對人工智慧感到非常興奮，我們也應該感到非常興奮，因為它將帶來革命性的變化 [音樂]，而且它正在悄悄滲透到幾乎所有領域。
The way I look at it is I look at the human body and I see like it's replacing the body and so on and then it replaces some aspects of the mind levels of thinking and reasoning.	我的看法是，我觀察人體，發現它似乎在取代身體等等，然後它又取代了思考和推理等心理層面的某些面向。
But at the same time we have another problem that's existing geopolitics.	但同時，我們還面臨另一個問題，那就是現有的地緣政治。
I mean that China is a larger trading partner with most countries than the United States is and that's a changing of the world order that is one of the ingredients right and then also you've got large wealth gaps the government don't have enough money and so [music] when you have the downturn then you have people at each other's throats so a lot of people they're thinking about how to sort of secure their future how do they all prepare let me say that history has shown that it's not the most intelligent people that are the most successful but the key thing to keep in mind is this is super interesting to me.	我的意思是，中國與大多數國家的貿易往來都比美國大，這正在改變世界秩序，這是其中一個因素，對吧？此外，貧富差距巨大，政府資金不足，所以 [音樂] 當經濟衰退時，人們就會互相攻擊，很多人都在思考如何保障自己的未來，他們該如何準備？我想說的是，歷史表明，最聰明的人並非最成功的人，但關鍵是要記住，這對我來說非常有趣。
My team given me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe and some of you have told us according to this that you are unsubscribe from the channel randomly.	我的團隊給了我這份報告，讓我了解有多少觀看這個節目的觀眾訂閱了頻道，而根據這份報告，有些人告訴我們，他們會隨機取消訂閱頻道。
So favor to ask all of you please could you check right now if you've hit the subscribe button if you are a regular viewer of the show and you like what we do here.	所以，請各位幫忙檢查一下，如果您是本節目的忠實觀眾，並且喜歡我們在這裡所做的一切，請您現在就確認是否已點擊訂閱按鈕。
We're approaching quite a significant landmark on this show in terms of a subscriber number.	就訂閱用戶數量而言，我們的節目即將迎來一個相當重要的里程碑。
So, if there was one simple free thing that you could do to help us, my team, everyone here, to keep this show free, to keep it improving year over year and week over week, it is just to hit that subscribe button and to double check if you've hit it.	所以，如果你能做一件簡單又免費的事情來幫助我們、我的團隊、這裡的每個人，讓這個節目保持免費，讓它年復一年、每週都在進步，那就是點擊訂閱按鈕，並再次確認你是否已經點擊了它。
Only thing I'll ever ask of you, do we have a deal?	我唯一想問你的就是，我們成交嗎？
If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do.	如果你這麼做，我會告訴你我會怎麼做。
I'll make sure every single week, every single month, we fight harder and harder and harder and harder to bring you the guests and conversations that you want to hear.	我將確保每週、每月，我們都會更加努力、更加奮鬥，為您帶來您想聽的嘉賓和對話。
I've stayed true to that promise since the very beginning of the DEO, and I will not let you down.	從 DO Direct 成立之初我就一直信守著這個承諾，我不會讓你們失望的。
Please help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get on with the show. [music]	請幫幫我們。非常感謝。讓我們繼續節目。[音樂]
Ray, for people that might not know who you are, you founded Bridgewater Associates in a two-bedroom apartment in 1975, and you grew it to the world's largest hedge fund.	雷，對於那些可能不認識你的人，你於 1975 年在一套兩居室公寓裡創立了橋水聯合公司 (Bridgewater Associates)，並將其發展成為世界上最大的對衝基金。
What was the total amount of cumulative net gains that you delivered for those investors over that period?	在此期間，您為這些投資者帶來的累積淨收益總額是多少？
I think it was something like 53 billion.	我想應該是 530 億美元左右。
We produced about a 12% return with no never any significant losses and it was uncorrelated with other investments.	我們獲得了約 12% 的回報，從未出現任何重大損失，而且與其他投資無關。
And you were one of the few managers to foresee the great financial crisis which allowed Bridgewwater to post positive returns of 9.5% in 2008 while the S&P 500 plunged by almost 40%.	你是少數預見這場巨大金融危機的經理人之一，這使得橋水基金在 2008 年取得了 9.5% 的正收益，而標準普爾 500 指數卻暴跌了近 40%。
Yeah.	是的。
Let me start with the thing that I'm most curious about because I sat here with an investor called Jeremy Grantham who you might know.	讓我先從我最好奇的事情說起，因為我之前和一位名叫傑里米·格蘭瑟姆 (Jeremy Grantham) 的投資人坐在一起，你可能認識他。
He told me that we're staring in the face of an AI bubble and therefore a economic collapse potentially.	他告訴我，我們正面臨人工智慧泡沫，因此可能面臨經濟崩潰。
If you look at the data, it would be compatible with history for the peak to be very soon.	從數據來看，如果高峰很快就會到來，這與歷史規律是一致的。
Everything is in line.	一切都符合規律。
This is I think the biggest investment bubble in American history.	我認為這是美國史上最大的投資泡沫。
What's your perspective on that?	你對此有何看法？
He's right.	他說得對。
I don't want to jump to conclusions as much as I want to explain reasonings that lead up to conclusions.	我不想草率下結論，而是想解釋得出結論的推論過程。
I'm at a stage in my life that I want to help people understand cause effect relationships.	我現在正處於想要幫助人們理解因果關係的人生階段。
What they call a bubble is when the price goes up a lot and companies do very well and then it collapses and that has implications for the economy.	他們所說的泡沫是指價格大幅上漲，公司業績非常好，然後泡沫破裂，這會對經濟產生影響。
It has implications for the markets like 1929 bubble, okay? or the 2000 bubble. Okay. Which is the dot bubble.	這會對市場產生影響，就像 1929 年的泡沫，懂嗎？或者是 2000 年的泡沫。好的，也就是網路（.com）泡沫。
Does it impact real people as well? Cuz you said the economy.	它也會對普通人產生影響嗎？因為你提到了經濟。
Did 1929 bubble bursting impact [clears throat] real people? Yes.	1929 年的泡沫破裂對普通人造成了影響嗎？[清嗓子] 是的。
The great depression followed because what happens is there's a new technology that comes along that's revolutionary.	隨之而來的是大蕭條，因為當一項革命性的新技術出現時，情況就會改變。
The dotcom bubble which was 2000 all the stuff that we have that's wonderful new technology.	2000 年的網路泡沫，包含我們現在擁有的所有那些美妙的新技術。
People get into that technology.	人們開始涉足這項技術。
They say that's miraculous.	他們說這簡直是奇蹟。
I can bet on that.	我可以押注在這上面。
I'm sure it's going to be successful and then they bet on it and sometimes they borrow money to bet on it and they lose sight that the price of it matters.	我確信它會成功，然後他們就下注，有時甚至借錢下注，卻忽略了價格高低的重要性。
So it goes up and up and it's everybody's thing, you know, like right now we're very excited about AI and we should be very excited because it's going to be revolutionary changes and it did at the same time.	所以價格一直在上升，而且成為每個人都關心的焦點，你知道，就像現在我們對人工智慧非常興奮，我們應該非常興奮，因為它將帶來革命性的變化，而且它也確實做到了。
So I want to buy some of that and everybody wants to invest in some of that and what they do is they don't pay attention to the price and there's a certain mechanics.	所以我想買一些，每個人都想投資一些，但他們所做的是不關注價格，這其中有某種運作機制。
People will borrow money.	人們會借錢。
Wealth is not the same as money.	財富並不等於金錢。
So you see a lot of people getting wealthy but you can't spend the wealth.	所以你會看到很多人變得富有，卻無法直接花掉這些財富。
You have to sell the wealth to get money because you can only spend money, right?	你必須變賣財富才能獲得金錢，因為你只能花錢，對吧？
So what happens is when they need money for one reason or another taxes change or interest rates go up and so they have to pay their debt service and so on there is a pricking of the bubble so that what happens is it falls. Okay.	所以，當他們因為這樣或那樣的原因需要錢時，例如稅收變化或利率上升，就必須償還債務等等，泡沫就會被刺破，然後價格就會下跌。好的。
And when that happens, people lose money.	當這種情況發生時，人們就會蒙受損失。
And as they start to lose money, the process works in reverse because when they made a lot of money, they have a lot of collateral, right?	當他們開始賠錢時，這個過程就會反過來，因為當他們賺了很多錢時，他們有大量的抵押品，對吧？
They can go borrow money because they're worth a lot.	他們身價很高，所以可以去借錢。
And that compounds on its way up.	而這種效應在上漲過程中會不斷加劇。
And then when it comes down the other way, it works the other way. Okay?	然後當它反過來下跌時，運作方式也一樣。好的？
Now you got to pay your debt.	現在你得還債了。
And so then you have to start to sell assets.	所以接下來你就得開始出售資產。
And then there's less demand for things, right?	那麼，對商品的需求就會減少，對吧？
So there's less demands because if you're losing money because you put some money in the stock market and that company and so on, you're going to spend less.	所以需求會減少，因為如果你因為把錢投入股市和那家公司而賠錢，你就會減少支出。
And as you spend less, then somebody else's income goes down, right?	當你減少支出時，其他人的收入也會減少，對吧？
You don't go to the restaurants.	你不去餐館消費了。
The economic downturns that typically follow a bubble like the Great Depression.	泡沫破裂後通常會伴隨經濟衰退，就像大蕭條一樣。
The late 20s was fantastic.	20 世紀 20 年代末期真是太棒了。
If you talk about changes and experiencing, this was the first time there was electricity in houses.	如果談到改變和體驗，這是歷史上第一次有電進入千家萬戶。
So it was the first time you would have refrigeration and you would have lighting in houses.	所以，那是人們第一次在房子裡擁有冰箱和照明設備。
This was the first time that you had cars popular that you could get.	這是你第一次能買到普及的汽車。
First time airplanes, first time you had radio and so everybody knew that they were going to be great in the future and they were great in the future.	飛機是第一次出現，無線電也是第一次出現，所以每個人都知道它們將來會很偉大，而它們將來也確實很棒。
But at the same time what happens is as they buy them and they stock socks go up and they borrow money to buy them and so on and the profits don't live up to the price then that causes this other dynamic and it produced the great depression.	但同時，隨著人們購買它們、股票上漲、借錢購買等等，如果利潤跟不上價格，就會引發另一種動態，從而導致了大蕭條。
So let's say that I buy this and this is a unit of artificial intelligence.	假設我買了這個，這是一個人工智慧單元。
So, let's say I buy one share in one of the big AI companies right now.	假設我現在買進一家大型人工智慧公司的一股股票。
Because investors are so excited about AI, they value this at $100.	由於投資者對人工智慧非常興奮，他們給它的估值達到了 100 美元。
This unit that I have here, they say it's worth $100.	他們說我手上的這個單元價值 100 美元。
So, my net worth is now $100.	所以，我現在的淨資產是 100 美元。
I go to the bank because I have this net worth, this paper worth $100, and I ask the bank for a 50% loan on this thing that I own.	我去銀行，因為我有這些淨資產，這張價值 100 美元的紙資產，我向銀行申請以我擁有的這個東西作為抵押，獲得 50% 的貸款。
They give me $50.	他們給了我 50 美元。
Now, I have $50.	我現在有 50 美元。
And then something happens in the economy which means that the investors who have invested in this and investors generally now need money to pay off their other debts that they have.	然後，經濟中發生了一些事情，這意味著投資於此的投資者（以及一般投資者）現在需要資金來償還他們的其他債務。
So this could be a war, it could be some kind of event that takes place and suddenly everybody rushes to sell their assets like this one.	所以這可能是一場戰爭，也可能是某種突發事件，然後大家突然爭相拋售像這樣的資產。
And so when I go to sell this, the price of it has now plummeted to say maybe $25.	所以當我準備出售這個時，它的價格已經暴跌到可能只有 25 美元了。
But I took a loan at the bank for $50.	但我向銀行貸款了 50 美元。
So I own the bank $50.	所以我欠銀行 50 美元。
But now this thing that I have that was worth $100 a couple of months ago is now worth $25 and I'm $25 in a hole.	但現在，我幾個月前價值 100 美元的東西，現在只值 25 美元了，我有了 25 美元的缺口。
So I have to quickly sell.	所以我得趕緊賣掉。
And then with everybody selling all the price of assets dropped.	然後，隨著大家紛紛拋售，所有資產的價格都下跌了。
People stop spending money at the restaurants.	人們不再去餐廳消費。
Like you say, there's less money around and then the bubble has burst and we're in this sort of declining.	正如你所說，流動資金減少了，泡沫破裂了，我們就進入了這種衰退期。
You got it.	答對了。
Okay. Good. All right. Fine.	好的。很好。沒問題。
And it happens because it must happen.	這件事發生是因為它必然會發生。
I mean meaning in these tremendous changes there's very little that's known.	我的意思是，在這些巨大的變化中，我們所知甚少。
So anybody who's in the business of making AI can't be precise.	所以任何從事人工智慧開發的人都無法做到精確。
They don't know exactly how much money is going to come in. Right?	他們並不清楚究竟會有多少收入進來，對吧？
So there's either one of two things.	所以只有兩種可能。
You either don't invest enough and then the competition runs away or you invest a huge amount and you can't be precise. Okay.	要麼你投資不足，競爭對手就領先跑掉了；要麼你投資巨額資金，但你無法做到精準。好的。
And so when that dynamic happens it's a problem.	所以當這種動態發生時，就會出現問題。
So yes, you said it very well.	是的，你說得很好。
So I'm going to repeat one other thing to emphasize.	所以，我要再重複另一件事來加以強調。
What's quite common now is you can issue stock for let's say you raise $50 million and you value the company at a billion.	現在比較常見的做法是，你可以發行股票，比如說籌集 5000 萬美元，而你對公司的估值是 10 億美元。
Only $50 million was actually spent on that company.	實際上只有 5000 萬美元花在了那家公司上。
But now if you raise that, you're a billionaire.	但現在如果你能籌集到這些，你就是億萬富翁了。
Mhm.	嗯。
Okay. Because the accounting value of that, what do you own?	好的。因為從會計價值來看，你擁有了什麼？
You own stock that is valued at a billion dollars.	你擁有了估值達十億美元的股票。
Nobody paid a billion dollars or whatever it is, right?	沒人真正支付過十億美元之類的錢，對吧？
And now you own that stock.	現在你擁有了這支股票。
But that stock you can't spend because you can't spend wealth.	但是，你不能花掉那些股票，因為你不能直接花掉財富。
Mhm.	嗯。
In order to spend it, you have to sell some of that stock to get money.	為了花錢，你必須賣掉一些股票來換取資金。
Yeah.	是的。
Right.	正確。
And quite often there's an interest rate rise because that you know let's say as there's a fever and there's an inflation then the central bank wants to try to put the brakes on that a bit. Okay.	而且，利率上升的情況很常見，因為當出現市場過熱和通貨膨脹時，中央銀行就想嘗試抑制一下。好的。
What does that mean?	這意味著什麼？
It means people who have debt in a sense have to come up with more money because when you own the debt hold the debt you have to come up with money to pay the debt and that dynamic works between us.	這意味著，從某種意義上說，負債的人必須想辦法籌集更多資金，因為當你承擔債務時，你必須想辦法賺錢來償還債務，這種動態在我們之間發揮作用。
We've said it clearly I think we understand the dynamic.	我們已經明確表達過了，我想我們理解其中的動態。
So they have to exist.	所以這些現象必然存在。
Now we have another problem that's existing. Okay. So we're talking about the bubble. Okay.	現在我們又面臨另一個現存的問題。好的。所以我們剛才在討論泡沫問題。好的。
But we also have some other things that are going on that happen around the same time.	但同時，還有一些其他的事情也在差不多同一時間發生。
A big gap between the rich and the poor and which also means the left and the right, the politics of it, right? Just as we have now.	貧富差距巨大，這也意味著左右翼之爭以及相關的政治問題，對吧？就像我們現在面臨的情況一樣。
When you have the downturn, then you have people at each other's throat.	當經濟衰退時，人們就會互相攻擊。
So if we take politics, what you see is this that they don't have enough money.	所以如果以政治為例，你會看到政府沒有足夠的錢。
The governments don't have enough money.	政府資金不足。
We have big budget deficits. Okay?	我們面臨巨大的預算赤字。好的？
Where do you get the money from in order to pay those bills?	你從哪裡弄錢來支付這些帳單？
The UK has had I think six out of the last seven years there's been a new prime minister.	我記得英國在過去七年中，有六年都更換了首相。
And because there's not enough money for the government and so what you start to see is people come in with their claims.	因為政府資金不足，所以你會看到人們紛紛前來提出各種訴求。
But there's this how do we get the money?	但是關鍵在於，我們要如何籌措資金？
And then people run who have money.	然後，有錢人就開始轉移資金逃跑了。
They say I don't want to be in this tax zone that's going to be and then they leave.	他們說不想留在即將設立的這種稅收區域，然後他們就離開了。
And so there's a domestic political problem that is not people compromising the same way they used to compromise. Right?	因此，國內政治問題在於人們不再像過去那樣妥協了。對吧？
So now you have the politics which compounds this.	所以現在政治因素又加劇了這種情況。
And and then you have a world this is what I call the big cycle.	然後，你會看到這樣一個世界，這就是我所說的大循環。
You have a world in which also the geopolitics changes.	你身處的世界，地緣政治也在不斷變化。
By geopolitics I mean country to country. Okay.	我說的地緣政治是指國家與國家之間的關係。好的。
There's a system under normal circumstances when there's a more dominant power, they impose their order and that becomes more peaceful.	在正常情況下的體系中，當存在更強大的主導力量時，它會貫徹自己的秩序，社會從而變得更加和平。
But when you have arguments of how things should go, those arguments start to turn into conflicts, right?	但是，當大家對事情應該如何發展存在分歧時，這些分歧就會演變成衝突，對吧？
And so those things tend to happen together.	因此，這些事情往往會同時發生。
That's why I refer to that as the big cycle, that dynamic that is the confluence of the money, the internal conflict politically and the external conflict which is what we're going through.	這就是為什麼我稱之為大週期，也就是金錢、內部政治衝突和外部衝突（也就是我們正在經歷的）交會的動態。
And and the problem is I think that people don't know the cycle.	問題在於，我認為人們並不了解這個週期。
So every day we go to our sources of information and you see this latest news, but they don't connect the dots in in understanding that cycle.	所以，我們每天從各種資訊來源獲取信息，看到最新的新聞，但人們並沒有把這些點聯繫起來去理解這個週期。
Closing off on this point of the bubbles.	關於泡沫的討論到此告一段落。
What is it that makes bubbles pop?	是什麼讓泡沫破裂？
So if we are in an AI bubble at the moment and it is going to pop at some point, what is the like they call it a black swan event?	所以，如果我們目前正處於人工智慧泡沫之中，而這個泡沫終將破裂，那麼大家所說的黑天鵝事件會是什麼？
There are a few of them.	有幾個因素。
There are bubbles and then the things that prick the bubbles.	存在著泡沫，也存在著刺破泡沫的因素。
Okay, the things that prick the bubbles typically in the beginning are something that means that I have to sell some wealth to get money and that's usually a rise in interest rates.	好吧，通常在初期刺破泡沫的因素是，導致我必須變賣一些財富來獲取資金，而這通常是利率上升。
It could be something like wealth taxes, something that means I very wealthy, but typically the tightness of money because during that spot there's inflation pressures and central banks decide that they want to tighten monetary policy and so on.	這可能類似於財富稅，影響極其富有的人，但通常是因為貨幣緊縮，因為在那個時期存在通脹壓力，中央銀行決定收緊貨幣政策等等。
It becomes that the amount of money that I can get by owning that debt at the higher interest rates is greater than the amount of money I could get on my equity investments.	這演變成：我透過持有高利率債務所獲得的收益，比我從股權投資中獲得的收益還要多。
That's part of it.	這是原因之一。
Also what you see is a lot more production of stock and what I mean by that issuance of stock.	此外，你還可以看到股票發行量的增加，我指的是股票的增發。
Think of that the supply and the demand.	請想想供需關係。
There's there's demand, right?	市場是有需求的，對吧？
And we've been talking about the demand that makes stocks go up. You know how we create this wealth.	我們一直在討論推動股票上漲的需求。你知道我們是如何創造這種財富的。
But there's also supply.	但同時也有供應。
So you can issue stock.	所以你可以發行股票。
It's very issue there.	那裡確實是個大問題。
There's almost nothing that's easier to produce than stock.	幾乎沒有什麼比發行股票更容易生產的了。
So if I own a company, I can just print more equity.	所以如果我擁有一家公司，我就可以直接增發股票。
Yes.	是的。
Today you could probably go out and say, "I'm going to make a company and I'm going to take it public and you go to your audience and your crowd and you can say I'm going to make stock."	今天你或許可以走出去說：「我要創辦一家公司，我要讓它上市。」然後你可以對你的受眾和粉絲說：「我要發行股票。」
Okay? So it becomes when there's a market that wants stock, there's a production of stock.	好的？所以，當市場需要股票時，就會有股票的生產。
Okay? And that supply of stock together with the other that I'm mentioning the the need for getting money and so on causes the the bubble to pop.	好的？而股票的供應加上我提到的其他因素（例如資金需求等），導致了泡沫破裂。
Are you seeing signs that we're in a bubble?	你是否看到我們身處泡沫之中的跡象？
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Classic signs that we're in.	是的。是的。是的。這些都是我們身處泡沫中的典型跡象。
And the bubble I should emphasize it's not a you're in a bubble or you're not in a bubble.	我需要強調的是，泡沫並非非黑即白（要麼在泡沫中，要麼不在泡沫中）。
It's a degree thing. Okay.	這是一個程度問題。好的。
There is also that it's in weak hands.	還有一個問題是，資產掌握在散戶/弱者手中。
I can look at now who is in these companies right and is it in strong hands or weak hands classic strong hands is that when weak investors not knowledgeable investors then put a lot of money into it particularly if that's in a leveraged way	我現在可以觀察這些公司裡的投資者是誰，資產是在實力雄厚的機構手中還是實力較弱的散戶手中。經典的「弱勢手」是指那些缺乏經驗和知識的投資者投入大量資金，特別是以槓桿方式進行投資時。
way with debt	透過債務的方式
with debt or they can buy an op a a leveraged version of that like there are ETFs now that are leveraged versions of the stock market and they and so on and so they get into that.	透過負債，或者他們可以購買槓桿衍生品，例如現在有一些股市的槓桿 ETF 等等，他們就這樣進入了這些領域。
It's more like they're crapshooting. Okay?	這更像是他們在博弈/賭博。好的？
And then that's a sign of a bubble.	這就是泡沫的跡象。
So I I've listed a few of those signs. Those are the major signs of those bubbles.	我列出了其中一些跡象。這些是泡沫的主要特徵。
And so that when it goes down, then you get the fear.	當價格下跌時，恐懼感就會蔓延。
Then you get the need I to raise cash and that dynamic works its way out in the form of then the reverse happening.	接著就會產生籌集現金的需求，而這種動態會以相反的方式展現。
In other words, everything becomes cheap and everybody has the spending and the things you mentioned.	換句話說，所有東西都變得便宜了，每個人都面臨你提到的那些支出和問題。
If we are in an air bubble and it is going to bust, you know, I had a friend of mine contact me and he said, "Stephen, I think we're in this an AI bubble and he's running an AI company."	如果我們身處一個即將破裂的泡沫之中，你知道，我的一個朋友聯繫我說：「史蒂芬，我認為我們正處於人工智慧泡沫之中」，而他正經營著一家人工智慧公司。
So, he said to me, "I'm going to raise lots of money now so that when the the markets come down and investors are fearful, they don't want to invest in companies. People stop spending as much. They start thinking about their subscriptions and start canceling subscriptions, we're going to be good and we're going to be able to buy up some of our competitors who are going to be struggling."	所以，他對我說：「我現在要籌集大量資金，這樣當市場下跌、投資者恐慌而不願投資公司時，當人們減少支出、開始考慮並取消各項訂閱服務時，我們就能處於有利地位，並能夠收購一些陷入困境的競爭對手。」
So he's just raised hundreds and [snorts] hundreds of millions of dollars for his AI company, right?	所以他剛剛為他的人工智慧公司籌集了數億美元，對吧？
And it's probably like that easy.	可能就是這麼容易。
Yeah, it was easy now, right?	是啊，現在很容易，對吧？
The question here is like what should at different levels?	這裡的問題是，不同層面該如何應對？
So like the the average Joe on the street up to entrepreneurs that are running companies, how does how do they all prepare for an economic bubble that might burst?	從街頭的普通人到經營公司的企業家，他們該如何為可能破裂的經濟泡沫做好準備呢？
He's such a good example.	他真是個好榜樣。
And what that does and just following it through on what we were saying a minute ago is that increases the supply of AI stock.	承接我們剛才所說的，他這樣做會增加人工智慧股票的供給。
Okay. Yeah. because he sold stock more.	好的。是的。因為他賣出了更多股票。
Yeah. Right.	是的。正確。
And so as he and others do that more this greater supply of stock comes in and and so he wants to get ahead of it in that dynamic and then you know that contributes to the bubble but how do they prepare? How does the average	因此，隨著他和其他人這樣做，更多的股票供應湧入市場，他想在這種動態中搶佔先機，這會助長泡沫。但是，他們該如何準備？普通人該如何……
I would also say something the future is very unknown and people should not be timing sophisticated investors have a real challenge even in timing a bubble so on u the important thing always is to diversify now we're going to go back to money the basics of money management and I by the way I personally have gone through the cycle because I didn't have any money and then I did then I a lot of money and I remember the cycle very well.	我還想說的是，未來充滿未知，人們不應該試圖擇時入市。即使是經驗豐富的投資者，在掌握泡沫時機方面也面臨巨大挑戰。所以，最重要的是始終要分散投資。現在我們要回到資金管理的基礎。順便說一句，我個人經歷過這個週期，因為我一開始一無所有，後來有了錢，接著有了很多錢，我對這個週期記憶猶新。
What happens is as you start off u I used to count how many months I would be okay a certain amount of money how much m I would be okay if no more money came in if I lost my job or whatever I did I'd mostly never I worked two years for somebody but in other words if money didn't come in and it would be months and then years and so on to build that security because I take care of my family and so on and So what u as we're looking at these things, these are the choices that you have in order to be able to say, do I buy my house or apartment? Do I put my money into cash?	剛開始的時候，我以前會計算，如果沒有後續收入（比如失業或無論發生什麼情況，雖然我幾乎沒為別人工作過，只工作過兩年），手頭上的錢能讓我支撐多少個月。換句話說，如果沒有收入，我需要累積能支撐幾個月、甚至幾年的資金來建立安全感，因為我要照顧家人等等。所以，當我們審視這些問題時，這些都是你可以做的選擇：我該買房子還是公寓？我應該把錢換成現金嗎？
And what happens to money is you have to put it into something because they'll pay you interest on it. Okay?	關於資金，你必須把它投資到某個地方，因為他們會支付你利息。好的？
So that's your cash deposit and so on.	這就是你的現金存款等等。
And people think that that's the safest.	人們認為這是最安全的。
It's not.	其實不然。
It's the worst investment over a long long period of time because inflation will eat it away.	長遠來看，這是最糟糕的投資，因為通貨膨脹會將其蠶食殆盡。
You mean putting it in a bank?	你是指存進銀行嗎？
Just leaving in a bank, please in whatever form, a money market fund, a whatever it is that is that shortterm, I'll deposit it and it'll give me an interest rate. Okay.	就存放在銀行裡，無論是什麼形式，貨幣市場基金也好，任何短期存款也罷，我存進去，它會給我利息。好的。
Okay. And that's what they think about as cash.	好的。這就是他們眼中的現金。
You know, nobody leaves it literally in cash because if it's literally in cash, it doesn't earn interest.	你知道，沒有人會把錢直接以紙鈔現金存放，因為如果是紙鈔現金，就賺不到利息。
So why shouldn't I put it there and get some interest on it?	那我為什麼不把它存進去賺點利息呢？
And so that's cash and people think that that's the safest.	所以這就是現金存款，人們認為那是最安全的。
It has the lowest return guaranteed almost to have the worst return over the longer period of time.	它的回報率最低，幾乎可以肯定的是，從長遠來看，它的回報率也是最差的。
People keep cash because it feels safer.	人們保留現金是因為感覺比較安全。
That's right. And I'm saying it's not safer because of inflation.	沒錯。但我認為由於通脹的存在，它並不安全。
Explain that to me in simple terms.	請用簡單易懂的方式給我解釋一下。
Okay. Well, if I got no interest rate, um then what I would do is I'd lose to to the inflation rate.	好的。嗯，如果我沒有拿到利息，那麼我的資產價值就會被通脹率侵蝕。
And what's the inflation rate?	通貨膨脹率是多少？
Well, three and a half or 4% happens to be about where it is now.	嗯，目前大概在 3.5% 到 4% 左右。
A year.	一年。
Yeah. A year.	是的，一年。
So that de at least $3.5 a year.	所以每年至少縮水 3.5 美元。
That's right.	沒錯。
If I just leave it in cash.	如果我只把它當現金放著。
That's right. Okay.	沒錯。好的。
Now I'll get an interest rate on it if I put it someplace and it'll give me maybe u an interest rate that's somewhere in that vicinity similar to that.	現在，如果我把它放在某個地方，就能獲得利息，利率可能就在這個範圍附近。
Three four five four%.	3%、4%、5% 或 4%。
And then I have to pay taxes on it.	然後我還要為此繳稅。
Oh, you have to pay taxes on the gain.	哦，這筆收益需要繳稅。
You're Yeah. Okay. Right.	你……是的。好的。對。
Even though you really didn't gain relative to inflation, you still have to pay the taxes on whatever you've earned or something anyway over the long term it's a lousy return because also think about returns also come from productivity and over a period of time people learn how to do things better and so on.	即使相對於通脹你實際上並沒有獲得實質收益，你仍然需要為你的帳面收益繳稅。總之，從長遠來看，這是一個糟糕的回報，因為投資回報也來自於生產力，隨著時間的推移，人們會學會如何把事情做得更好等等。
So then you can invest in let's call this stocks okay that we'll call that the stock market.	所以，你就可以投資我們稱為股票的東西，好，我們就稱之為股票市場。
this is cash and then you think on the stocks and then the stocks can go up or down u and then they have this dynamic that we're talking about that creates these big cycles and the busts and those cycles when they go down u go down u 60 70%.	這是現金，然後你考慮股票，股票可能會上漲或下跌，接著它們就有了我們正在談論的這種動態，這會造成巨大的週期和崩盤，而當這些週期下跌時，跌幅可達 60% 到 70%。
Okay, that that's what a bare market looks like.	好的，這就是熊市的樣子。
Woo! What a what a dive.	哇！真是大幅下挫。
Okay, this is gold.	好的，這是黃金。
That's gold and the these are bods and this is your house and that's Bitcoin.	那是黃金，這些是債券，這是你的房子，那是比特幣。
Okay, so these are the choices.	好的，以上就是各種選擇。
They each change for certain reasons.	它們各自因為某些原因而發生變化。
I'll digress into that in a minute, but what happens is they go like this when gold goes up.	我稍後會詳細解釋這一點，但當金價上漲時，情況就是這樣。
Uh tends to be that the bonds will go down in value or your house and these change in a certain way.	通常情況下，債券或房屋的價值會下降，這些資產會以某種方式發生變化。
And so the best thing to do is to have a diversified portfolio of that.	因此，最好的做法是建立一個多元化的投資組合。
When you have that rather than any one, you won't reduce your return, but you will reduce your risk.	當你擁有綜合資產而非單一資產時，你不會降低回報率，但會降低風險。
And diversified means having a little bit of each, right?	多元化意味著每種資產都配置一點，對吧？
A certain amount.	保持一定的比例。
And you have to know how to balance them because of their volatility.	由於它們的波動性，你必須知道如何平衡它們。
This one stocks is more volatile than this one.	股票的波動性比這個資產更大。
And my own recommendations are you start first of all with what you need.	我的建議是，你首先從你需要的東西開始。
Should I buy a place or should I use that money and I could travel more and so on.	我該買房嗎？還是應該用這筆錢去更多地方旅行等等？
One of the advantages of the house, the apartment and whatever is it's your environment.	房屋、公寓或其他住所的優點之一，就是它是你的生活環境。
Your environment is important.	你的環境很重要。
It produces forced savings.	它能帶來強制儲蓄。
Sometimes that forced savings is good.	有時候，強制儲蓄是件好事。
It is a it typically is taxed better.	通常情況下，它的稅收待遇會更好。
it's a it's a better vehicle for tax over a period of time.	從長遠來看，這在稅收方面是個更好的工具。
But I'm not arguing for this alone, but I'm saying when I'm looking at this, then I think this one gold is very interesting because when all of these tend to do badly, this tends to do well.	但我並不是單純為房產辯護，我是說，當我觀察這些資產時，我認為黃金非常有趣，因為當所有其他資產表現都不佳時，黃金往往表現良好。
Okay. So it's a very effective diversifying because this was money not until u 1971 and it's still the second largest reserve currency.	好的。所以這是一種非常有效的多元化工具，因為直到 1971 年它一直就是貨幣，而且至今它仍是第二大儲備貨幣。
Central banks hold reserve currencies.	各國中央銀行都持有儲備貨幣。
So it has qualities that are different from this and this has qualities like when the value of money goes down because of inflation.	所以它具有與此不同的特性，而這種特性體現在當貨幣因通脹而貶值時。
This bonds okay and bonds are basically lending the government money.	這是債券，債券本質上就是把錢借給政府。
That that's right.	沒錯。
If you lend the money at a certain interest rate and then inflation and interest rates rise, you're kind of locked into that interest rate.	如果你以一定的利率借出資金，隨後通脹和利率上升，你就會被鎖定在那個較低的利率上。
And so it has its own problems.	所以它本身也存在著問題。
The more important thing I would say is, you know, you save up and you say, how many years can I live if money doesn't come in?	我想說的更重要的一點是，你存錢，然後問自己：如果沒有收入進來，我能生活多少年？
Okay. And then you take that and you say, how could I be secure?	好的。然後你以此為基礎問自己：我怎樣才能獲得安全感？
So I don't want to put it into one thing that can go down 70%.	所以我不想把錢放在一個可能下跌 70% 的單一資產上。
So how do I diversify that?	那麼我該如何進行分散投資呢？
That's my main headline.	這是我最核心的建議。
A lot of people in the comments of our last episode u they were asking this like how does this apply for someone who doesn't have much money, maybe doesn't have any asset.	上一集節目的評論區裡有很多人問這個問題，比如這對於沒有多少錢、甚至沒有任何資產的人來說該如何應用。
Say they're 30 years old.	假設他們 30 歲。
They u have I don't know $100 disposable income and they're thinking about how to sort of secure their future.	他們可能只有 100 美元的可支配收入，正在思考如何保障自己的未來。
What is the advice for someone in that situation?	對於處於這種情況的人，有什麼建議？
Your only asset is yourself and and I guess what you're going to get from the government.	你唯一的資產就是你自己，以及我想你可能從政府那裡獲得的保障。
How do you sell yourself at at getting a better income or how much how are you getting money from the government?	你如何提升並展現自己的價值以獲得更高的收入？或者你能從政府那裡獲得多少資助？
Mhm.	嗯。
You selling yourself is the main thing.	提升並展現自身價值才是關鍵。
This is one of the big problems now with artificial intelligence and other machines u replacing people and and different types of jobs.	這是當前人工智慧和其他機器取代人類以及各類工作所帶來的大問題之一。
It becomes more difficult.	事情變得更加困難了。
It produces that big wealth gap while you're having more productivity.	在生產力提高的同時，也造成了巨大的貧富差距。
Everybody wants more productivity because it means how do you produce things more efficiently but that's u contributes to the income gap because your productivity equals your income for a large extent and then you have the and you know the political dynamic.	每個人都希望提高生產力，因為這意味著如何更高效率地生產商品，但這加劇了收入差距，因為在很大程度上，你的生產力就等於你的收入，接著就會引發政治上的動態。
It's tough to get yourself out of this position that you mentioned.	要擺脫你提到的那種困境確實很困難。
You know I'm imagining that person. Okay.	我能想像那個人的處境。好的。
It's not easy.	這並不容易。
there is this giant polarity.	這其中存在著巨大的兩極分化。
If you're in the top 10% of talent, let's say the world's your oyster.	如果你是前 10% 的頂尖人才，可以說世界就是你的舞台。
But nowadays, in order to be there, okay, that's that's difficult.	但如今，要想擠進前 10%，那是相當困難的。
Find something that u gives you the ability to sell your time for good money.	找一份能讓你透過付出時間賺取豐厚收入的工作。
Is that going to be that you're driving an Uber?	是去開 Uber 嗎？
Is that going to be that you have the talent and you're going to be able to understand AI and contribute that understanding to a company that values that or what is your skill?	還是指你具備天賦，能夠理解人工智慧，並將這種能力貢獻給重視它的公司？或者你的技能是什麼？
You found this. Okay.	你找到了現在這個領域。好的。
And and you found the way. Okay.	而且你找到了路徑。好的。
But you need money. Okay.	但你需要資金。好的。
And the the thing that you want to do, what you're doing, and I'm lucky enough to do is to make your work and your passion the same thing.	你想做的事、你正在做的事（也是我很幸運能做的事），就是將你的工作與你的熱情融為一體。
And don't forget about the money part.	同時別忘了賺錢這個部分。
Yeah.	是的。
I amum I one of the things that I I think I didn't realize earlier in my career is that whatever skills you have will be valued differently in different contexts or industries should I say.	我覺得在我職業生涯早期沒有意識到的一件事是，無論你擁有什麼技能，在不同的環境或行業中，它們的價值都會有所不同。
So for example say that my skill here and I'm not trying to flat on myself but say my skill here is working having conversations right?	舉個例子，假設我的技能（我不是在自誇）是善於進行對話交流，對吧？
Let's say that's what it is.	假設情況真是如此。
there's lots of places I could have conversations and those places would value my ability to have conversations wildly differently per hour.	我可以去很多地方進行對話，而這些地方對我每小時對話能力的價值評估會有天壤之別。
Right?	對吧？
So I often think this and speak to my friends about this when they they tell me their skills I say let's look at the different industries and how they would value the skills you currently have differently.	所以我經常思考這個問題，並和朋友們討論：當他們告訴我他們的技能時，我會說，讓我們看看不同的行業，以及他們會如何以不同的標準來評估你目前擁有的技能。
A good example again you know you could be an Uber driver or you could chauffeur radalio.	一個很好的例子是，你可以當一名 Uber 司機，也可以當雷·達利奧的專職司機。
Now I imagine those two things pay wildly differently but the same skill of driving a car broadly speaking.	我想這兩項工作的薪水肯定相差懸殊，但從廣義上講，使用的都是駕駛汽車這同一項技能。
I agree with all that.	我完全同意這一點。
And so I think that's one way to just you know the other way is you go ask your current boss for a promotion but again they're going to value you in the context of their other employees the market in that industry etc.	所以我覺得這是一種思考方式。另一種方式是你向現任老闆申請升職，但他們會根據其他員工、該行業的市場行情等背景來評估你的價值。
So it you might get 10% but you're not going to see a step change necessarily.	所以你可能會獲得 10% 的加薪，但不一定能看到階梯式的突破。
So that's something that I always say to people.	這是我經常對大家說的話。
Absolutely right.	完全正確。
And another u law of something and I think it's almost a law of everything.	還有一條關於某事的規律，我認為它幾乎適用於所有事物。
It's a law if you u buy almost anything is those at the top whatever the thing you're buying.	這是一條通用規律，如果你購買幾乎任何東西，頂尖的產品或服務（無論你買的是什麼）……
If you're buying a painting, a piece of furniture, a piece of clothing, a a person's time or whatever, command premiums that are many multiples of the average.	如果你要買一幅畫、一件家具、一件衣服、一個人的時間或其他任何東西，頂尖品質都能索取高出平均水平許多倍的溢價。
It's almost like if you could invest 10% more of your time, your effort, your skill to go up.	這就像如果你能多投入 10% 的時間、精力和技能去提升自己……
Mhm.	嗯。
Okay.	好的。
You will get twice as much for 10% better something like that. Okay.	只要效能提升 10%，你就能獲得兩倍的回報，諸如此類。好的。
So that's part of the formula of life and a formula of employment.	所以，這是生活法則和職場法則的一部分。
And so if I think if you keep what you wrote up and what I'm bringing up in mine, that helps you position yourself and know what to do.	所以我覺得，如果你把你總結的內容和我提出的觀點結合起來，就能幫助你定位自己，知道該怎麼做。
There should be a button just down below here.	這下方應該有一個按鈕。
And if it says subscribed, you're already subscribed.	如果顯示「已訂閱」，則表示您已訂閱。
If it says subscriber, that means you're not yet.	如果顯示「訂閱」，則表示您尚未訂閱。
And if you're not subscribed, please could you do us a favor and hit that button?	如果您尚未訂閱，能否幫個忙點擊該按鈕？
It helps the show more than you know.	它對節目的幫助比您想像的還要大。
And according to the algorithm, you're someone that watches our show, but you haven't yet hit that button.	根據演算法判斷，您是關注我們節目的觀眾，但您尚未點擊該按鈕。
Thank you so much.	非常感謝。
We didn't mention this thing here actually, so I probably should talk about it because people are talking about it a lot right now, which is u Bitcoin or Bitcoin.	我們之前其實沒有提到這個東西，所以我可能應該談談它，因為現在很多人都在討論它，那就是比特幣。
What's your perspective on Bitcoin?	你對比特幣有什麼看法？
I know the market in Bitcoin is down at the moment.	我知道目前比特幣市場行情不佳。
I have about 1% of my portfolio in Bitcoin because there's different kinds of money and the money that you can't print, that's one kind.	我的投資組合中大約有 1% 是比特幣，因為貨幣有多種形式，而無法任意印製的貨幣是其中一種。
This is the other kind of money that you can't print.	這是另一種無法任意印製的貨幣。
Gold.	黃金。
Yeah.	是的。
You cannot crack it with technology.	你無法用技術破解它。
You can hold it, you own it.	你可以實體持有它，你擁有它。
It's there's a saying that it's the only financial asset that is not somebody else's liability.	有句俗話說，它是唯一不屬於他人負債的金融資產。
Somebody has to give you something for it.	總得有人拿實物商品來跟你交換它。
It has that.	它具備這種特性。
So, in my category of wanting, let's say, make sure that I have some hard money, which for most people should be between five and 15% of their portfolio.	所以，就我希望確保擁有部分硬通貨的資產類別而言（對大多數人來說，這應占其投資組合的 5% 到 15%）……
I prefer that.	我更傾向於後者。
I'm pointing to u the gold bars here u rather than um the Bitcoin.	我指的是這裡的金條，而不是比特幣。
Is it still in your view a gold light asset?	在你看來，它仍算是一種「類黃金」資產嗎？
Yes, it's it's a type of money that can't be printed, but there are technologies that can u hurt it.	是的，它是一種不能任意印製的貨幣，但有些技術可能會對其造成傷害。
In other words, if there's quantum computing and it can be monitored by u governments and so on, it could be taxed and digital currencies are somewhat similar.	換句話說，如果有量子計算出現，且能被政府等機構監控，它就可能被徵稅，數位貨幣在這方面有些類似。
But you don't like Bitcoin as much as gold because of privacy reasons as well.	但出於隱私等原因，你對比特幣的喜愛程度不如對黃金。
And when the governments say I don't want it, they have the power therefore to do whatever they want with it.	當政府表示不認可它時，他們有權力對其進行任何處置。
And central banks will not own any significant amount of that because of the reason I said they they want their transactions to be private and in their control.	中央銀行不會大量持有比特幣，原因正如我所說，他們希望交易保持私密並處於自身掌控之下。
Think about how different it would be for Russia. Okay?	想想這對俄羅斯來說有多麼不同，懂嗎？
They confiscated these kind of other assets.	他們沒收了這類其他資產。
Um they didn't get these gold.	嗯，他們沒能沒收這些黃金。
Okay. Gold.	好的。黃金。
And so u what you're seeing even particularly in this time of conflict is u that there's a sense that if I'm holding this others won't get it.	所以，尤其是在這種地緣衝突時期，你會看到一種心理：如果我持有黃金，其他人就無法奪走它。
You mentioned a second ago the impact you think AI is going to have on the economy broadly but also again to real people's lives.	您剛才提到了您認為人工智慧將對整體經濟以及對普通人的真實生活產生的影響。
There's lots of debate.	對此有很多爭論。
I mean there's been a debate over the last 10 10 10 years or so within the world of AI.	我的意思是，在過去十年左右的時間裡，人工智慧領域一直存在爭論。
You had the big AI CEOs originally saying that AI would cause job disruption and that you know you've even had some of the CEOs more recently saying work will become optional in a world of super intelligence.	最初，一些大型人工智慧公司的 CEO 表示人工智慧會導致就業衝擊；最近甚至有 CEO 表示，在超級智慧的世界裡，工作將變成可選項。
At the same time we have robotics coming over the horizon.	同時，機器人技術也即將普及。
So you've got this sort of convergence of intelligence and then I don't know you could think of it like muscles like physical muscles or ability at the same time.	所以你會看到這種智力與實體能力（比如肌肉或體能）的融合。
Um we're seeing AI accelerate and its capabilities.	我們看到人工智慧及其能力正在加速發展。
What does this mean for the average person and their job and who's going to benefit from this AI revolution in your point of view?	在你看來，這對普通人及其工作意味著什麼？誰會從這場人工智慧革命中受益？
It means that you will either be cutting edge and capable and among that top fraction of a percent down to 10% of the population who is u cutting edge and using it and accelerating or u you will if you're in a thinking job u be at risk of being u replaced.	這意味著，要麼你站在時代前沿、能力出眾，躋身於那 1% 到 10% 運用尖端技術加速發展的頂尖人群之列；要麼如果你從事的是腦力思考工作，你就有被取代的風險。
We're coming into a world where we can automate everything.	我們正步入一個萬物皆可自動化的世界。
The evolution of man was we had the agricultural era and there was no real inventiveness and then man invented the machine and that the machine did is it replaced man's physical necessity.	人類的演化歷程是這樣的：我們經歷了沒有真正發明的農業時代，然後人類發明了機器，機器的作用是替代人類的體力勞動需求。
So men used to be like oxen in the agricultural field and so on and they were replaced by tractors.	所以，過去人在農田裡像牛一樣勞動，後來被拖拉機取代了。
And then there was we entered the industrial age.	接著我們進入了工業時代。
First you had the printing press that allowed people to learn and then you had these inventions, the industrial revolution, the first industrial revolution.	首先是印刷機的發明使人們能夠學習，然後出現了第一次工業革命的各項發明。
And what you had is the replacing the physical that man would do in factories then and so on.	其核心是用機器替代了當時工廠裡工人所做的體力勞動等。
And so the way I look at it is I look at the human body and I see like it's replacing the body and so on and it's coming up higher and higher and then it replaces some aspects of the mind that you can computerize and it's coming up and up and it's replacing higher and higher levels of thinking and reasoning. Okay.	所以，我的看法是，我觀察人體，發現技術正在逐步替代身體功能，並不斷向更高級別推進；接著它替代了思維中可以電腦化的部分，並且不斷升級，開始替代更高層次的思考和推理。好的。
So that path is part of the evolutionary path that is happening. Okay.	所以這條路徑是正在發生的演化過程的一部分。好的。
So then you start to say what do I have to offer?	那麼你就會開始問自己：我能提供什麼價值？
And so an answer to who benefits from it?	那麼，誰會從中受益呢？
Those who benefit from it are those who are u the capitalists with the ideas that replace u the workers.	從中獲益的是那些擁有運用技術替代工人理念的資本家。
And so if you look at there's revenue for businesses.	如果你觀察企業的收入結構。
When you buy something in a store, there's revenue. Okay?	當你在商店購物時，就產生了收入。好的？
And if you look at the share that is going to workers, you see that share going down.	如果你看一下分配給工人的份額，你會發現這個比例正在下降。
And if you look at the share that's going to those who own that business, that share is going up.	如果你看一下分配給企業所有者的份額，會發現這個比例正在上升。
That's, you know, how do they share that revenue in terms of the cost?	你知道，這體現了他們如何在成本與收益中分配這筆收入。
And you see that that's rising.	你可以看到所有者的份額正在上升。
And so u this is an evolutionary process and it's true that what happens is you get more u free time. Okay.	所以這是一個演化過程，確實帶來的結果是你獲得了更多的空閒時間。好的。
So now the society has to think how do I deal with this?	所以現在社會必須思考如何應對這種情況？
So for example, the work week which used to be you know a 60 or 70 hour work week goes down to less than a 40hour work week and there's more time but there needs to be u you know how do you create a bottom and so we're going through this phase in which there is this upper end that is making incredible amounts of wealth as we describe and then this lower end that is u then having these challenges.	例如，以前每週工作 60 或 70 小時，現在減少到不到 40 小時，時間增多了；但需要思考如何建立保障底線。我們正在經歷這樣一個階段：一方面，頂層人群正在創造難以置信的財富；另一方面，底層人群則面臨著各種挑戰。
We've have a relatively good economy and the u difficulty of college graduates to u get employment has increased significantly.	我們目前的經濟狀況相對良好，但大學畢業生就業的難度卻顯著增加。
And I can tell you that in in many businesses, it becomes more of a pain in the neck to have a college graduate u let's say do it.	我可以告訴你，在很多企業中，僱用一個大學畢業生來做這件事反而變得更加麻煩。
They you have to train them.	你必須培訓他們。
you have to and and many of those tasks many of that thing can be done u very quickly with the AI and with computerization and as you get into robotics you're going to have that h happen right the speed of the disruption that we're seeing because of the amount of capital that's flowing into these AI frontier models like the anthropics and open AI etc etc is is quite different from anything else sort of the historical precedences we've seen through the industrial revolution where it took time to build the tractors.	你必須花費資源，而很多這類任務和工作藉助人工智慧和電腦化可以快速完成；隨著進入機器人領域，這種情況也會發生，對吧？由於大量資金流入 Anthropic、OpenAI 等人工智慧前沿模型，我們所看到的顛覆速度與以往任何歷史先例都截然不同——在工業革命時期，製造拖拉機需要相當長的時間。
There's an element of speed.	這其中包含速度的因素。
What happens usually is the bubble bursts.	通常情況下，泡沫會破裂。
Mhm.	嗯。
And now you have the cyclical dynamic of that while the technology, you know, evolves.	隨著技術的不斷演進，這種週期性的動態也隨之而來。
But the the supply demand and the debt problem that we just talked about then come in.	但是，我們剛才討論的供需關係和債務問題隨之出現。
And so unemployment is due to you typically u some sort of a combination of a financial crisis that like we talked about the debt and stocks going down and people not having collateral and then therefore not buying u assets and that dynamic that causes the unemployment rate that factor that's the sort of economic reasons but in terms of the AI agent robotics being able to replace you I've sat with Dar from Uber and Dar said that he imagines in the future the 9 million riders that they have around the world doing deliveries will be replaced by autonomous vehicles, autonomous robots.	因此，失業通常是由金融危機引起的（就像我們之前討論的債務問題、股票下跌、人們失去抵押品因而無法購買資產），這種動態導致了失業率上升，這是經濟層面的原因；但就人工智慧代理和機器人能否取代人類而言，我曾與 Uber 的 CEO 達拉 (Dara) 坐在一起，達拉說他設想未來 Uber 全球 900 萬名送貨司機/外送員將被自動駕駛汽車和自動化機器人取代。
Those 9 million drivers careers that you have will be out of work conceivably in the you know talking about being honest about the situation.	坦誠面對這種局勢的話，這 900 萬名司機的職業生涯可以預期將會面臨失業。
Yeah, I think again it goes to physical AI as well, right?	是的，我認為這也與實體人工智慧有關，對吧？
So I think 20 years from now you can imagine that those 9 million will be 20 million u AVs maybe but we have time between now and then partially because we don't operate in the virtual world right we operate in the physical world you have to get the regulations up you have to build the cars you have to build the sensor stacks the the models have to get there so there is time between now and then but you can imagine the majority of our trips being fulfilled killed by robots of some kind.	所以我認為 20 年後，你可以想像那 900 萬個職位可能會變成 2000 萬輛自動駕駛汽車。但從現在到那時我們還有時間，部分原因在於我們不是在虛擬世界運作，而是在實體世界運作：你必須完善法規、製造汽車、開發感測器堆疊、模型也必須達到相應水平。所以從現在到那時還有緩衝時間，但你可以想像我們的大部分出行都將由某種機器人完成。
The unemployment rate gets very influenced by the bubble bursting and the economy going down.	失業率極易受到泡沫破裂和經濟下滑的影響。
You see that spike.	你會看到失業率飆升。
You certainly have the evolutionary change that you're referring to.	你所說的演化變革確實存在。
Okay.	好的。
Okay. In other words, there's this evolutionary thing in which they u like he says u you know the tractor replaces the laborer or the assembly line worker is technology is replaced and that is an evolutionary thing that goes continuously for you know many years and in the way that you're describing because you asked about the unemployment rate.	好的。換句話說，存在一種演化過程，就像他說的，拖拉機取代了農民，流水線工人被新技術取代，這是一個持續多年的演化過程；針對你問到的失業率問題，我只是想強調……
I just wanted to emphasize that the unemployment rate is very heavily affected by that bubble bursting.	我只是想強調，失業率受泡沫破裂的影響非常嚴重。
So, okay, you've got two forces at once then.	好的，那麼你同時面臨著兩種力量的作用。
You've got when the bubble bursts, everybody, as we said, needs cash.	當泡沫破裂時，正如我們所說，每個人都需要現金。
So, they start cutting their costs.	所以，他們開始削減成本。
So, that's when they start laying people off and they start looking around their company and go, "Forget growth. We just need to survive. So, we're going to lay off that team and that team and that team."	所以，這時他們開始裁員，環顧公司並說：「別想什麼成長了，我們只需要生存下去。所以我們要裁掉那個團隊、那個團隊和那個團隊。」
And then you see unemployment going up.	然後你就會看到失業率上升。
And then you've got this sort of underlying shift happening at the same time which is workers are replacing their team members with AI agents or robotics or in the factories they're now using robots to do factory work etc.	同時，一種潛在的轉變也在發生，那就是管理者正在用人工智慧代理或機器人取代團隊成員，或者在工廠裡使用機器人來完成生產工作等等。
And that's the sort of current slow march forward.	這就是當前緩慢推進的趨勢。
Right?	對吧？
So I have this chart.	我這裡有一張圖表。
Okay. What this represents this line is the u evolution of technologies.	好的。這條線所代表的是技術的演進。
In other words, we have greater and greater learning and doing things better.	換句話說，我們的學習能力越來越強，做事也越來越高效。
And that's the evolution that we're talking about that also machines replace people or replace their tags over that period of time.	這就是我們所談論的演進——在此期間，機器逐漸取代人類或接管其工作職責。
Then you have this big cycle which is typically lasts for about a lifetime on average about 80 years.	然後就出現了一個大週期，通常會持續一生左右，平均約 80 年。
Uh we went through that the last time 1945.	我們上一次經歷是在 1945 年。
There are orders.	這其中存在著秩序。
There's a monetary order.	有貨幣秩序。
There's a domestic political order.	有國內政治秩序。
There's a geopolitical order. Okay?	有地緣政治秩序。好的？
You have the bubble bursting. Okay?	泡沫破裂了，好的？
You have this.	你看，就是這個情況。
This is what we're talking about.	這就是我們所討論的。
u that dive and then when you go through that, you break down these orders.	那種大幅下挫，接著當你經歷這個過程時，這些秩序就被打破了。
And when they break down, then u you would get rid of the debt burden.	當秩序瓦解時，你就能擺脫債務負擔。
So you get rid of the monetary system as you're used to it.	你擺脫了你已經習慣的貨幣體系。
you u may get rid of the domestic order.	你可能會廢除原有的國內政治秩序。
Many countries orders, their systems end.	許多國家的秩序與體系就此終結。
I mean, they all end at some point.	我的意思是，它們最終都會走向終結。
And so, they can break down quite often in a time of great internal conflict.	因此，在內部衝突劇烈的時期，體系往往會崩潰。
Does the system last and that happens at that time.	體系能否維持，往往就取決於那個時刻。
And so, that's that big breakdown.	所以，這就是大崩潰。
But still, what you're talking about is and and I and I agree with you, this keeps going up. Okay?	但是，你所說的技術進步（我也同意你的看法）會持續上升。好的？
Because learning you don't unlearn what you've learned.	因為人類獲取的知識是不會倒退喪失的。
So as this goes up and and you're you you still keep this thing going up, okay?	所以，當知識與技術上升時，這條線會持續向上發展，好嗎？
But you have the big cycle, the debt, the conflict type of movement.	但你同時面臨著大週期、債務和衝突型動態的波折。
And these little cycles are the cycles that we see in this roughly on average, let's call it an 80-year period, but u u you see the u you see the recession and recession has higher unemployment and so on.	這些小週期就是我們在大致平均 80 年的期內看到的短波週期，你會看到經濟衰退，而衰退會導致失業率上升等等。
Then they stimulate monetary policy.	然後政府會採取刺激性貨幣政策。
They make money looser.	他們放寬貨幣流動性。
Then the economy goes up and you have prosperity.	隨後經濟回升，迎來繁榮。
Then you go into a bubble.	接著進入泡沫期。
Okay, that and you run lower on capacity because you're using up the capacity.	好的，因為產能被消耗殆盡，剩餘產能逐漸不足。
Inflation rises, they tighten monetary policy and then you have the re the recession that follows.	通脹上升，央行收緊貨幣政策，隨之而來的就是下一波衰退。
So these movements from one recession to the next recession, that cycle that I've just described on average has lasted about six years, u, give or take about three.	因此，從一次衰退到下一次衰退的這種小週期，平均持續大約 6 年左右（上下浮動約 3 年）。
So that's the way it looks.	情況就是這樣。
So I'll play this back for you to make sure I understand it.	我來覆述一遍，確保我理解正確。
There is a sort of bigger macro bubble which is over 80 years which is the changing of the world order.	存在一個持續 80 多年的更大層面的宏觀大週期，即世界秩序的重塑。
Yep.	對。
You get deeper and deeper and deeper in debt over a lifetime.	在一生中，債務會累積得越來越深。
So let's say your debt capacity you have a certain amount.	假設你的債務承受能力是有上限的。
So the government's debt capacity for example it can borrow when you wipe it out here then you can build it up and build it up until it starts to squeeze.	例如政府的舉債能力，當你在大崩潰點將債務清零後，你可以重新累積債務，直到債務壓力開始產生擠壓。
debt service starts to squeeze out	償債成本開始擠壓其他支出
and that's a changing of the world order.	這標誌著世界秩序的改變。
That is one of the ingredients, right?	這是核心要素之一，對吧？
So, okay, we have too much debt.	好吧，我們承擔了太多債務。
At the same time, what you're building up is you're building up great wealth gaps because capitalism, and I love capitalism, but it's it here's the reality.	同時，貧富差距正在巨幅擴大，因為資本主義（雖然我熱愛資本主義）的現實就是如此。
It creates big differences in income and wealth.	它造成了收入和財富的巨大差距。
And when it does that, that also creates differences in people's opportunities because the rich people can educate their children well and they can give them all the benefits.	當這種情況發生時，也造成了人們機會上的不平等，因為富人可以讓孩子接受良好的教育，並給予他們所有的優勢資源。
I mean, education is a big benefit.	我的意思是，教育是一項巨大的優勢。
That's why there should be broad-based excellent education.	這就是為什麼應該普及優質教育。
But all of that happens and so you see wealth gaps build up.	但現實是貧富差距不斷擴大。
So like the industrial revolution leads into the guilded age.	就像工業革命催生了鍍金時代。
Okay, the guilded age looks a lot like now, you know, people buying expensive things and looking very gilded.	好的，鍍金時代看起來很像現在，人們購買昂貴的物品，外表看起來無比華麗。
And then it leads to the robber barons.	接著引發了「強盜大亨」(Robber Barons) 階層的出現。
And the robber barons are people who are considered, you know, the u that they're u taking advantage the billionaire class and it becomes that cycle.	那些強盜大亨被認為是在剝削大眾的億萬富翁階層，從而形成那樣的週期循環。
So that's the way it works.	規律就是這樣運作的。
So you've got this 80year sort of, you know, boom and then there's a collapse which sort of ends in conflict and the changing of the new world order and then within there you have these little u bubbles which really economic bubbles that go up and down, recession, people get very excited, they they they contract, they get excited, they contract and then you have the the straight line here which is the sort of techn technological improvement across the spectrum of ideas and technologies and all these things and	所以存在這樣一個約 80 年的繁榮與崩潰週期，最終以衝突和新世界秩序的確立告終；而在大週期內部，存在著起伏波動的小經濟泡沫（衰退、擴張、緊縮）；同時還有這條代表思想和技術持續進步的直線——
it keeps going	它一直在持續向上
and it keeps going regardless of this boom and bust because as you say people never forget I so a couple of questions on this then I don't even know which one to dive into first but let's go for I guess just closing off on the last point that I was I was getting at is there's this narrative that there'll be new jobs created because of AI and robotics and everyone will be fine.	不管經濟如何繁榮與蕭條，技術進步都在持續，因為正如你所說，人類獲取的知識不會被忘記。關於這一點我有幾個問題，我甚至不知道該先討論哪一個，但讓我們回到我剛才想表達的最後一點：有這樣一種說法，認為人工智慧和機器人技術會創造新的工作崗位，每個人都會過得很好。
A lot of this narrative comes from Silicon Valley	這種說法很大程度上來自矽谷
who is producing the technology that doesn't want to be attacked because they're making a lot of money.	生產這些技術的企業不想受到攻擊，因為他們賺了大錢。
they may have an act and they're in the good desire to have a certain perspective.	他們可能心懷某種意圖，或者出於好意持有某種特定觀點。
I think objective u people u in Silicon Valley and there are a number of them would say it me going to have a big employment but you you you can see it u in the wealth who owns stocks and who doesn't own stocks.	我認為矽谷客觀理性的人（這樣的人不少）會說這對就業有重大影響，但你可以從持有股票與不持有股票的人之間的財富狀況看出端倪。
Okay.	好的。
Now if you own stocks u u you're very happy now. Okay.	現在如果你持有股票，你現在會非常高興。好的。
And if you don't own stocks, you're not getting that benefit of owning stocks.	如果你不持有股票，你就無法享受持有股票帶來的好處。
So that in and of itself creates a greater greater wealth even aside from employment. Okay.	因此，撇開就業不談，這本身就在創造更大的財富差距。好的。
So there are these forces to create the greater u wealth gaps, right?	所以存在著推動財富差距進一步擴大的力量，對吧？
Roughly 61% of US adults own stock in some form and most of them hold it indirectly through their retirement plan.	大約 61% 的美國成年人以某種形式持有股票，其中大多數人是透過退休計劃間接持有。
Only 20% of Americans directly own individual stocks or shares through a brokerage account.	只有 20% 的美國人透過經紀帳戶直接持有個股或股份。
While over half of Americans own stocks, ownership is heavily concentrated.	雖然超過一半的美國人擁有股票，但股權高度集中。
The top 10% of households hold almost 90% of the stock.	前 10% 的家庭持有近 90% 的股票。
How do you feel about this narrative coming from predominantly Silicon Valley that there'll be new jobs created that we can't yet forecast and everyone will be fine?	你如何看待主要來自矽谷的這種說法——即將創造出我們目前無法預測的新工作，每個人都會過得很好？
They point to the industrial revolution.	他們以工業革命為例。
They say, "Look, when the tractors came, we thought everyone was finished. When factories came, we thought everyone was finished. But look, we figured some other stuff out	他們說：「你看，拖拉機出現時，我們以為大家都完蛋了；工廠出現時，我們也以為大家都完蛋了。但你看，我們最終想出了別的解決辦法。」
because if you look at that, this is this what u thing I'm saying that as your body is more and more replaced with your mind, then you can do that.	因為如果你仔細想想，這就是我想說的：當你的身體逐漸被腦力勞動所取代時，你確實可以做到轉行；
But when your mind is replaced and your body is replaced, u what is it that you have to sell?	但是，當你的大腦和身體都被取代時，你還有什麼可以出賣的價值？
What is it that we have to sell as humans once our body and our minds are replaced?	一旦我們的身體和大腦都被取代，我們人類還有什麼可以出賣的？
what man has u is emotions and has u intuitions.	人類所擁有的是情感和直覺。
There are certain things that artificial intelligence doesn't have.	有些東西是人工智慧不具備的。
And so if you have to get down to what those things are u you know does the u robot give a good massage?	所以如果你必須深入探討這些東西是什麼，比如機器人能提供良好的按摩服務嗎？
does u you know what is it that is left and so we will wrestle with what it is that is left. Okay.	究竟還剩下什麼？我們將不得不思考到底還剩下哪些不可替代的領域。好的。
But I think that for the foreseeable future, those who can work very well where they have an exceptional human intelligence and work in partnership with the artificial intelligence that they are going to be at the cutting edge of all of this.	但我認為在可預見的未來，那些擁有卓越的人類智慧，並且能夠與人工智慧保持良好合作的人，將會處於這一切的最前沿。
I've got 60 seconds and I'm going to show you how much I can get done because of our sponsor called Whisper Flow.	我有 60 秒的時間，我將向您展示因為我們的贊助商 Whisper Flow，我能完成多少工作。
And for those of you that don't know what it is, it's a business I invested in that turns your speech into text in any app or device.	對於不知道它的人來說，這是我投資的一家企業，它可以將你的語音在任何應用程式或設備上轉化為文字。
I'm going to post into our Slack channel which rewards whichever team member conducted the most experiments this week.	我要在我們的 Slack 頻道發帖，獎勵本週進行最多實驗的團隊成員。
Hi everyone. Here is this week's experimentter of the week. Congratulations to the Dire of SEO trailer team which is Aunt, Liv, Dom, and Cam. You guys have won.	嗨大家好，這是本週的每週實驗者。恭喜 SEO 預告片團隊（Aunt、Liv、Dom 和 Cam），你們獲勝了。
Okay, now I'm going to open Gmail.	好的，現在我要打開 Gmail。
So here is one of our founders on an email chain that I want to connect my team with.	這是我們的一位創辦人在郵件鏈中，我想讓我的團隊與他取得聯繫。
All I have to say is add my team's emails and Whisper will do exactly that.	我只需要說「添加我團隊的電子郵件」，Whisper 就會精準執行。
Now, a quick message to Juan, who does my schedule every single week.	現在，給每週幫我安排日程的 Juan 發個簡訊。
Hey, Juan, can I record on Wednesday at 2?	嘿，Juan，我週三下午 2 點可以錄音嗎？
Actually, no. Do you know what? Let's record at 3 p.m. on Wednesday.	其實不行。你知道嗎？我們安排在週三下午 3 點錄音吧。
Whisper Flow is four times faster than typing, and it is incredibly easy to use.	Whisper Flow 比打字快四倍，而且使用起來極其簡單。
So, if you want to give it a go, all you have to do is head to whisperflow.ai/stephven to download it today.	所以，如果你想嘗試一下，只需訪問 whisperflow.ai/stephven 即刻下載。
Just like Jon Jones, where marginal improvements in your cognitive performance can have a massive impact.	就像 Jon Jones 一樣，認知能力的微小提升能產生巨大的影響。
Sometimes I podcast for 10 hours a day.	有時我一天要錄製 10 個小時的播客。
Over the last couple of weeks, I've been in filming for a TV show and then I have like one or two days off to get all of my work done, which means there's lots of cognitive load.	在過去幾週裡，我一直在參與電視節目的拍攝，然後只有一兩天的休息時間來處理所有的工作，這意味著有巨大的認知負擔。
And so I turned to ketones because I find myself more articulate, able to think more clearly, able to work out better when I'm fueled by ketones.	所以我轉而使用酮類補充劑，因為我發現當以酮為燃料時，我的口條更清晰、思考更敏捷、體能訓練效果更好。
And so the reason I became a co-owner of this company and the reason why they now are a sponsor of this podcast is because I remember one of my team members called Cristiana, she tried it once and came up to my desk and she goes, "This is the best product ever made." [clears throat]	我成為這家公司合夥人以及他們贊助本播客的原因，是因為我記得我的團隊成員 Cristiana 試用過一次後走到我的辦公桌前說：「這是史上最好的產品。」[清嗓子]
And I think in part that's because she really cares about those cognitive benefits as I do, as Jon Jones does, and as I think most of my listeners probably will.	我覺得部分原因在於她和我、Jon Jones 一樣，非常看重這些認知益處，我相信我的大多數聽眾也是如此。
So if you haven't tried these yet, all you have to do is go to ketone.com/stephven and you'll also get 30% off your first subscription order.	所以，如果您還沒試過，只需訪問 ketone.com/stephven，首次訂閱還可享受 7 折優惠。
will get exclusive Ketone IQ merch and of course cognitive benefits that might just change your life.	您將獲得獨家的 Ketone IQ 周邊商品，以及可能改變你生活的認知益處。
So if you had kids that were 16 years old now, Ry, and they said, "Dad, what what do you think based on everything you know about the future? What should I be doing?"	雷，如果你現在有 16 歲的孩子問你：「爸爸，根據你對未來的了解，你覺得我應該做什麼？」
First of all, there's the question of what what what matters most in your lifestyle.	首先，這取決於在你的生活方式中什麼最重要。
Uh so I'm going to get philosophical, not u assuming that the highest income is the best. Okay?	我要從哲學的角度來談，而不是假設收入越高越好。好的？
um because happiness, you want happiness and health.	因為你需要的是幸福和健康。
And so in answering your question, there's very little correlation between the amount of money you have and the level of happiness that you have past the basic level.	在回答你的問題時，一旦超過了基本保障水平，你擁有的金錢數量與幸福程度之間的相關性非常低。
And so I could be answer your question first, which the obvious way is to say to earn the most amount of money.	所以我最直接的回答可能是告訴你如何賺最多的錢。
And I want to start off in saying that u you know my experiences and so on is u like I love being in nature and it doesn't cost me hardly anything.	但我想先說明，從我的經驗來看，比如我熱愛身處大自然，這幾乎不需要花我什麼錢。
I mean it depends where your pull is and so don't lose sight of your pull and what it's about.	我的意思是這取決於你的心之所向，所以不要偏離你的熱情和初衷。
What you want to do is you want to get above the level that you u don't have to panic.	你需要做的是達到一個不需要焦慮恐慌的資產水平。
We just earlier discussed how many months can I live and to be me able to secure that and to be excited and have that passion or that whatever it is the life that I want to have.	我們剛才討論過「沒有收入還能維持幾個月的生活」，確保達到那個安全水平，並保持熱情去過自己想過的生活。
So I just want to emphasize keep in mind of that.	我只是想強調，要牢記這一點。
But then also you know my principle is make your work and your passion the same thing and don't forget about the money part right so know your nature.	但同時，我的原則是將你的工作與熱情相結合，同時不要忽視賺錢這個部分，對吧？所以要了解你的本性。
Um, this is what I tell my grandkids, okay?	這是對我孫輩們說的話，懂嗎？
You have a feel and you also have a nature.	你有直覺感受，也有天生的本性。
It's not just your preferences.	這不僅僅是你的偏好。
People think differently.	人們的思維方式各不相同。
Some are more adventurous, some are less adventurous, some are more conceptual or artistic and can think with imagination and they love doing that.	有些人更具冒險精神，有些人較不冒險；有些人更偏向概念化或藝術性，善於運用想像力思考且樂在其中。
Some people don't like that.	有些人不喜歡那樣。
Some people want to make life should be more concrete and more certain and so on.	有些人希望生活更加具體、更加確定等等。
That's your nature.	這就是你的本性。
You're partially you're a lot born with that nature and you also learn it in your earlier years.	這種本性很大程度上是天生的，同時也是在早年生活中習得的。
We know this of h how neuroplasticity works and so on.	我們從神經可塑性的運作原理中了解這一點。
So we are all on a journey to u find the match between our nature and our path and you find th that path but you can't forget about this money part when you're pursuing that path.	所以我們都處於尋找本性與人生道路契合點的旅程中；你尋找那條道路，但在追求這條道路時不能忽視資金供給。
Don't forget about the money.	不要忘記賺錢。
So if your you know grandkids came to you and they said I want to become a lawyer would you say listen that's forgetting about the money because I think AI might take that job or would you say yes?	如果你的孫子跑來跟你說「我想成為一名律師」，你會說「聽著，那會賺不到錢，因為人工智慧可能會取代那個工作」，還是你會支持他們？
Would you if they said I want to be	如果他們說「我想做……」
I think you u	我想你……
I want to do a thinking job.	我想從事腦力思考工作。
Let me say that history has shown that it's not the most intelligent people or the most intelligent species that are the most successful and it's not no necessarily those that work the hardest although these things are very important.	我想說的是，歷史表明，最成功的不一定是智商最高的人或最適應的物種，也不一定是工作最努力的人，儘管這些因素非常重要。
It is the those who species and and people who are also most adaptable and and so there's going to be great change in your lifetime. Okay?	最成功的往往是那些最適應變化的物種和人群。因此，在你的人生中將會發生巨大的變化。好的？
And so yes, today it's artificial intelligence, but if you went back u not long ago, we didn't even know artificial intelligence would exist the way artificial intelligence today exists.	是的，今天是人工智慧，但如果回到不久前，我們甚至不知道人工智慧會以今天的形式存在。
And the future will be like that.	未來也會是這樣。
So when you're nailing it down, you know, it used to be make sure that u you know how to u code and then claude code comes along and all of those who are coding u or worry about their jobs. Okay.	所以當你具體落實時，你知道以前大家說要確保學會寫程式，接著 Claude Code 等工具出現了，所有寫程式的人開始擔心他們的飯碗。好的。
So what is it that matters?	那麼真正重要的是什麼？
Okay, it is u it is the approach to life in a sense that produces that u you know the the general understanding and also the adaptability.	好的，從某種意義上說，重要的是對待生活的態度，這種態度培養了綜合理解能力和適應能力。
I think a lot has to do with knowing yourself.	我認為這很大程度上與認識自我有關。
That's why in building Bridgewater u the personalities of the person were very important in what suited their jobs.	這就是為什麼在建立橋水基金時，個人的性格特點對於其是否適合工作崗位至關重要。
And then I u built this u personality profile test.	然後我開發了這個性格分析測驗。
Then I made it online for anybody to go take.	我把它放在網上供任何人免費測試。
It's about 30 minutes.	大約需要 30 分鐘。
It's free online.	網上免費提供。
It's called Principles U.	它叫 Principles U。
That'll tell you a lot about your nature. Okay?	那會告訴你很多關於你本性的資訊。好的？
But your goal is to find that nature.	但你的目標是探索這種本性。
And what what are the paths?	那麼有哪些路徑呢？
And there are several paths and they're constantly changing to find that nature. Okay?	有幾條路徑，而且它們為了適應本性在不斷變化。好的？
You experiment, you learn. Okay?	你去嘗試，你去學習。好的？
But you know, you probably u were pulled into this job by your nature, right?	但是，你可能也是被你的本性吸引到現在這份工作中的，對吧？
And so and and you made it work.	然後你讓它成功運作起來。
And here it is.	事實就是這樣。
It works in all of those dimensions.	它在所有層面上都發揮了作用。
And it's like that for everybody.	對每個人來說都是如此。
Yeah.	是的。
It's it's it's interesting because you look forward to the future.	這很有趣，因為你展望未來。
And I I think if I was a young person at this stage and I was trying to set out where to aim my career, I would be more confused now than ever before, especially cuz they're also contending with this u unemployability crisis amongst entry levels.	我想如果我是這個階段的年輕人，試圖為自己的職業生涯確定方向，我現在會比以往任何時候都更加迷茫，尤其是因為他們還面臨初級崗位的就業危機。
But if you're talking about you'd be confused because you can't anticipate the future, that's right.	但如果你說因為無法預測未來而感到迷茫，那是正常的。
That's just the way it is, right?	事實就是這樣，對吧？
And and if you say what is it that I need given that reality, okay, I need to I need to learn I need to know how to maximize the use of tools like AI to be able to in increase what I know and how do I use that to the best of my ability to be as useful as possible doing things that fulfill me.	如果你問在這種現實下你需要什麼：你需要去學習，需要知道如何最大限度地利用像人工智慧這樣的工具來擴展知識，並盡己所能運用這些工具去創造價值、做成就自己的事情。
Mhm.	嗯。
Okay.	好的。
So that's what you need to do.	所以這就是你需要做的。
You're asking what you need to do.	你問你需要做什麼。
u just get over the fact that you don't know what the future's going to be like.	接受你無法預知未來這個事實吧。
So if you're looking for an answer, is it going to be a computer programmer? Is it going to be this or that?	所以如果你在尋找確切答案：是當程式設計師？還是做這個或那個？
No, just be maximize your ability to know which is so easy to do nowadays, right?	不，只需要最大限度地提升你的認知能力，這在如今非常容易做到，對吧？
So maximize that and then maxim use that to maximize your usefulness and in jobs that make you happy.	所以極大化你的認知能力，並運用它來實現你的價值，從事讓你快樂的工作。
And that's the thing that that's the best I can give you in terms of more my 16-year-old that's the best I I can give them because I I don't want to mislead them that it's the thing that it's the particular job. Okay.	這是我能給 16 歲孩子最好的建議，因為我不想誤導他們以為某個特定職業就是唯一的答案。好的。
That'll mislead them.	那會誤導他們。
You talked about this 80year cycle which results in this new world order and it sounded like you were saying that near the end of the cycle you see wealth inequality and you see the guilded age where some people have lots of nice things and other people at the other end are struggling and this is a function of capitalism.	你談到了這個導致新世界秩序的 80 年週期，聽起來你像是說在週期末期會看到財富不平等，看到鍍金時代——有些人擁有很多好東西，而另一端的人在苦苦掙扎，這是資本主義產生的現象。
First of all, u it's a reality that it's not only just a u a a wealth gap difference and if the majority system is not working for the majority, well, you're going to have a problem.	首先，現實情況是這不僅僅是財富差距的問題，如果主流體系不能為大多數人服務，就會出現大問題。
And yes, it is u it's contributed to these things where one wants to create more opportunity through education and through other basics that there's certain level at a floor that nobody should go underneath because it's bad for them and it's bad for the society.	是的，這引發了人們希望透過教育和其他基礎設施創造更多機會，並設定一個任何人都不應低於的底線保障，因為低於這個底線對個人和社會都不利。
And just to embellish on that point, my wife and I live in Connecticut.	為了補充這一點，我和我妻子住在康乃狄克州。
It's the on a per capita income basis, I think it's the second richest state, but 22% of the high school students have either dropped out of high school or are failing with absentee rates of greater than 25%.	按人均收入計算，它是美國第二富裕的州，但 22% 的高中生要麼退學，要麼因曠課率超過 25% 而成績不及格。
And as a result, a lot of it is gangs, shootings, drugs, and so on that leads to a lot of incarcerations.	結果，其中很大一部分演變成幫派、槍擊、毒品等問題，導致大量人員被監禁。
and the bill for incarcerations has become u larger than the education budget.	監禁的支出費用甚至已經超過了教育預算。
When you have that kind of cycle and so on, the system has to work for most of the people and and so on.	當出現這種週期現象時，體系必須調整為大多數人服務。
So you u you have that u dynamic, but it all comes down to productivity.	所以存在這種動態，但一切最終都歸結為生產力。
And so u the way I look at it is the government run by almost anybody can't make these things run well.	我的看法是，幾乎任何團隊管理的政府都無法讓這些事情高效運轉。
I mean, governments do not make things run well.	我的意思是，政府並不擅長讓事物高效運轉。
So, what is it like to give them the money and expect that they're going to make things work well?	那麼，給他們錢並指望他們能把事情做好，這現實嗎？
And so, you look at this set of circumstances and you say, who is going to make it work well?	所以，你觀察這種情況並問：誰能讓它高效運轉？
And and I don't know the answer.	我也沒有確切答案。
And these are budget considerations and so on.	這些涉及預算考量等等。
You have to prioritize the things that make it work well.	你必須優先考慮能讓系統高效運轉的事情。
And and you know what that is?	你知道那是什麼嗎？
That is u educating people to be productive and civil.	那就是教育人們具備生產力和文明素養。
We don't talk enough about civility, you know, how you work together to be able to achieve a a productive result.	我們對文明素養談得不夠——即如何共同努力以實現高效成果。
And the way these cycles go, it's more likely that they're going to have a big fight and we're going to have, you know, a debt problem and those kinds of things than how we're going to come together and work out how to achieve this environment which takes care of wonderful education and productivity of people and all of that to make the society work better u for most people.	從週期的演進來看，各方更有可能發生激烈爭吵，引發債務問題等，而不是團結起來探討如何建立一個重視優質教育和生產力的環境，讓社會為大多數人更好服務。
And that's the way it looks and that's what's happened.	情況看起來就是這樣，現實也是如此發生的。
Capitalism leads to inequality it seems.	資本主義似乎必然導致不平等。
Yeah.	是的。
So that doesn't have to.	但情況並非必然如此。
There are some societies u like in in Singapore, some of the Scandinavian countries, some some societies there is a a floor that everybody can have u good education, adequate housing and adequate health care.	在某些社會（如新加坡、部分斯堪地那維亞國家），存在一個保障底線，讓每個人都能享有良好教育、足夠住房和適當醫療保障。
The foundations, okay?	這些是社會基石，懂嗎？
Because if you go below those levels, the society will pay terribly for it because those people will become liabilities, not assets of the society.	因為如果低於這些水平，社會將付出慘痛代價，因為這些人會變成社會的負擔而非資產。
They'll be disruptive.	他們會對社會產生破壞性。
So, what about wealth taxes?	那麼財富稅呢？
Because this is the big debate now that the big debate in the UK at the moment is tax the rich.	因為這是目前的重大爭論，英國現在熱議的焦點就是「向富人徵稅」。
It's been all over our news over the last couple of weeks.	過去幾週新聞裡到處都在報導這件事。
The big debate in New York and LA is wealth taxes and tax the rich.	紐約和洛杉磯的大論戰也是關於財富稅和向富人徵稅。
Good idea, bad idea.	這是好主意還是壞主意？
It's a very difficult idea in the following ways.	從以下幾個方面來看，這是一個實施起來非常困難的主意。
I'm just talking about the mechanics.	我只是從操作機制層面來談。
They have to sell the wealth and and that contributes to get the money to pay the taxes.	他們必須變賣財富來換取現金支付稅款。
That's one of those things that can cause the bubble to burst as we're talking about.	正如我們所說，這是可能導致泡沫破裂的因素之一。
And then [clears throat] u operationally it's very difficult unlike if they did it as u stepped up tax basis.	而且 [清嗓子] 在操作層面上極其困難，不像調整遞增稅基那樣簡單。
In other words, right now when you die, your capital gains gets put aside and you don't have to pay capital gains taxes, you pay inheritance taxes.	換句話說，現在當人去世時，資本利得稅被擱置，不需要繳納資本利得稅，而是繳納遺產稅。
And there are ways that you can raise taxes and not hurt the economy.	有一些方法可以提高稅收而不損害經濟。
But we do have to realize that it will lessen investment because what wealth is mostly used for is to put it into investment.	但我們必須意識到這會減少投資，因為財富的主要用途就是用於投資。
So you have to do this with a at the same time the improvements in those that are going to improve productivity like education and so on.	所以在徵稅的同時，必須同步改進教育等能提高生產力的領域。
If you're just making transfer payments, wealth payments and you undermine the productivity of the society by doing that.	如果你只是進行轉移支付和財富發放，這樣做會削弱社會的生產力。
In other words, you're just giving it for consumption and so on.	換句話說，你只是把錢發給人們用於消費等。
And the money is going from what was capital expenditures and those kinds of investments that make u a better more productive society to go to in a sense consumption and so on that doesn't produce that pro productivity that's going to be a problem.	資金從原本可以推動社會更高效的資本支出和投資中流出，轉向了無法產生生產力的消費領域，這將成為一個問題。
So you have to think how do you make people productive and how do you make your society productive for most people or you're going to have to find a way where you say that other group of people who is not productive u the overall society can have a higher level of productivity but we're going to still establish this bottom that I'm talking about the bottom in education the bottom in conditions and then you have to say who is capable of doing building a u a society that will be productive.	所以你必須思考如何讓人民具備生產力，如何讓社會對大多數人來說更具生產力；或者你必須找到一種方法，讓整體社會擁有更高的生產力，同時為不具備生產力的群體建立教育和生存條件的底線保障；然後你必須問：誰有能力建成一個具備生產力的社會？
And who is that?	那會是誰呢？
Well, as I say, you have this dynamic problem that u u typically a privatelyowned, capitalist business will do better than their government counterparty.	嗯，正如我所說，這裡存在動態問題：通常情況下，私營資本主義企業的運作效率會優於對應的政府部門。
Okay?	好的？
So, a business is more productive typically than a government entity.	因此，企業的生產力通常高於政府實體。
that system.	這是體系使然。
So entrepreneurship, you need entrepreneurship.	所以需要企業家精神。
Yeah.	是的。
And capitalist, in other words, people who are capable of making the thing they're responsible for productive.	以及資本家——換句話說，就是那些有能力讓自己負責的事務產生效益的人。
Okay.	好的。
Run efficiently.	高效運作。
Run efficiently.	高效運作。
So you need those indisputably.	無庸置疑，需要這類人才。
And if you're doing that in government, you need that in government in order to be able to do it.	如果要治理政府，政府內部也需要這樣的人才才能把事情做好。
And government has its own u it first of all, it doesn't attract many of those people.	但政府本身有其局限性，首先它無法吸引很多這類人才。
And then it also has by its nature knowing many people have gone into it, it it is almost dysfunctional as it causes all of this arguing and problem.	其次，出於其本性，雖然很多人加入其中，但無休止的爭吵和內耗使其近乎失能。
So those who want to be most productive tend not to go there and also u it doesn't u distribute well.	所以那些追求最高生產力的人往往不會去政府部門，而且政府也不擅長資源分配。
These people do not they're not on the ground.	這些官員並不深入一線。
They don't have the direct contact.	他們沒有直接接觸實際情況。
They don't know what it's like.	他們不知道真實情況是如何。
And as I'm describing, I see this politicians Yeah, the politician who says I'm u I'm going to you know so you still have to come back to the question who's going to make it run efficiently.	正如我所描述的，政客宣稱「我要如何如何」，但最終還是要回到那個核心問題：誰能讓系統高效運作？
This is something that I've made for you.	這是我們為您準備的東西。
I realized that the direio audience are strivvers.	我意識到 DIEO 的受眾都是奮鬥者。
Whether it's in business or health, we all have big goals that we want to accomplish.	無論是在事業還是健康方面，我們都有想要實現的遠大目標。
And one of the things I've learned is that when you aim at the big big goal, it can feel incredibly psychologically uncomfortable because it's kind of like being stood at the foot of Mount Everest and looking upwards.	我學到的教訓之一是，當你盯著極其宏大的目標時，心理上會感到無比壓抑，這有點像站在珠穆朗瑪峰腳下抬頭仰望。
The way to accomplish your goals is by breaking them down into tiny small steps.	實現目標的方法是將其拆解為極小的步驟。
And we call this in our team the 1%.	我們團隊稱之為「1% 哲學」。
And actually this philosophy is highly responsible for much of our success here.	事實上，這種理念是我們在這裡取得成功的關鍵因素。
So what we've done so that you at home can accomplish any big goal that you have is we've made these 1% diaries and we released these last year and they all sold out.	因此，為了讓屏幕前的您能實現任何遠大目標，我們製作了這些「1% 日記本」；我們去年發售時全部售罄。
So I asked my team over and over again to bring the diaries back but also to introduce some new colors and to make some minor tweaks to the diary.	所以我多次要求團隊重新推出這款日記本，同時加入新顏色並進行微調。
So now we have a better range for you.	現在我們為您提供了更豐富的選擇。
So, if you have a big goal in mind and you need a framework and a process and some motivation, then I highly recommend you get one of these diaries before they all sell out once again.	所以，如果您心中有遠大目標，需要一套框架、流程和動力，我強烈建議您在它們再次售罄前入手一本。
And you can get yours at the diary.com.	您可以在 thediary.com 購買。
And if you want the link, the link is in the description below.	如果您需要連結，連結就在下方說明欄中。
What is the UK currently a cautionary tale of?	英國目前警示了什麼？
It's the classic cycle.	這是經典的衰退週期。
They have gotten over indebted, underproductive, and they've run out of choices.	他們過度負債、生產力低下，且已經無路可選。
In other words, there's not enough money. Okay?	換句話說，資金不足了。好的？
And because there's not enough money u to to do all the things, then they've gotten this internal political conflict going.	由於沒有足夠的資金來處理所有事務，內部政治衝突隨之爆發。
And you've had u six out of the last seven years you've had a a new pro prime minister because somebody else comes in and they got their promise and and the promise doesn't pan out and it doesn't take long to be that that I don't believe your promise anymore.	過去七年中，有六年出現了新首相，因為新人上台提出承諾，承諾無法兌現，很快人們就不再相信這些承諾了。
So you bring the people in and then you throw them out.	所以你把他們選上去，然後又把他們換掉。
We just had a new prime minister yesterday.	我們昨天剛迎來新首相。
Yeah, I know.	是的，我知道。
I'm It's all part of this cycle.	這都是這個週期的一部分。
And so what happens is they don't have the financial and the people move.	隨之而來的是財政枯竭，人才和資金流失。
It's just logical, right?	這完全符合邏輯，對吧？
It's just when you're heavily indebted and you're not as productive and you've got large wealth gaps.	當你負債累累、生產力不足且貧富差距巨大時。
What are you going to do?	你能怎麼做？
It's politics.	這就是政治。
u you're going to say, "I can't raise taxes because if I raise taxes, besides having great in conflict, u people are going to leave." Okay?	你會說：「我不能加稅，因為如果加稅，除了引發劇烈衝突外，富人和資金還會流失。」好的？
So, I can't I can't cut benefits because those who are receiving whatever those benefits are are the ones that are suffering.	「我也不能削減福利，因為領取福利的人正是那些困苦群體。」
I mean, what am I going to do?	我的意思是，我該怎麼辦？
Cut those benefits?	削減那些福利嗎？
So, now u okay, but wait a second, I'm running a big deficit or I don't have enough money.	那麼，現在問題來了：我面臨巨額赤字或者資金不足。
So, where does the money come from?	資金從哪裡來？
How do I get out of not getting more in debt?	我該如何避免債台高築？
And then what does that mean for the person who's lending to you?	那麼這對借錢給你的借款人意味著什麼？
They don't want to lend to you, right?	他們不想借錢給你了，對吧？
So, you're not going to get the money to finance the deficits.	所以你無法獲得資金來填補赤字。
It's mechanics.	這就是運作機制。
So, what is it they have to do to get out of that situation?	那麼他們必須做什麼才能擺脫這種困境？
They're going to have to have a, you know, a major restructuring.	他們必須進行重大重組。
You're going to have to u go bankrupt.	你必須接受債務破產/清算。
Wipe down.	清零重組。
Yeah.	是的。
Well, well, the the way the central banks work now is they do a mixture of printing money which produces inflation and then restructuring the debt in some way like maybe changing the maturity and and in these cycles quite often they put in capital controls because they think people are leaving so they don't want them to leave and take their money with them.	嗯，現在中央銀行的運作方式是結合「印鈔（這會導致通脹）」和「以某種方式重組債務（比如延長到期日）」。在這些週期中，他們往往會實施外匯與資本管制，因為他們認為人們正在離開，不希望人們把資金帶走。
So they put in capital controls that says you can't leave with your money. Okay?	所以他們實施資本管制，規定你不能把錢帶走。好的？
And they'll have exit taxes and that's the type of thing that happens until you know there's period of great turbulence.	他們會徵收離境稅/離岸稅，這類事情會持續發生，直到經歷一段劇烈動盪期。
Then you u through a combination of restructuring the debt.	然後透過債務重組等綜合手段。
Restructuring the debt means like quite often you lengthen the maturity of the debt. Okay.	債務重組通常意味著延長債務的到期期限。好的。
I think what's needed is a strong middle.	我認為現在需要一個強有力的溫和中立派。
What does that mean?	這意味著什麼？
Right now there's a left and right and they're extreme and as long as they're at war with each other that's going to make things worse.	現在左翼和右翼都趨於極端，只要他們互相交戰，情況就會變得更糟。
Yeah.	是的。
If you can find that middle course so that those at most extreme u are more alienated than those who say you know we're going to have to figure this out together.	如果能找到中間道路，邊緣化極端分子，團結那些願意「共同解決問題」的人。
And then what I would do that leadership that core I would have u something like a bipartisan commission in which smart people meaning who understand how economics and these things work of both parties work together to u come up with a small and difficult plan.	然後，我會讓核心領導層成立一個類似跨黨派委員會的機構，讓兩黨中了解經濟和規律運作的精英共同制定一個精簡但艱鉅的計劃。
In other words, you're going to have to make difficult changes in order to make that u work well.	換句話說，你必須做出艱難的改變才能讓系統良好運作。
But if you can achieve that, you know, like sometimes in history, great leaders of opposing sides have been able to come up with a plan.	但如果你能實現這一點（就像歷史上對立雙方的偉大領袖有時能達成共識一樣）。
I mean, that's how the constitution was made.	我的意思是，美國憲法就是這樣誕生的。
You come up with a plan for operating that way and then you impose those difficult changes.	制定出一套依此運作的計劃，然後強制實施這些艱難的改變。
And that when I say this, I I say that that's very difficult and very long shot.	當我這麼說時，我知道這非常困難且希望渺茫。
But u unless you have bipartisan support, unless you do it in a way where the pain is shared u and there's a sense that there is a u we're doing the right thing as well as not a sense just a reality of doing the right thing to make most people productive.	但除非有跨黨派支持，除非採取共同承擔痛苦的方式，且大家確實落實（而非流於表面）正確的事情來提升大多數人的生產力，否則別無他途。
That is the best path forward.	這是最佳的前進道路。
If you were a young entrepreneur, you know, 21 years old, would you build a company in the UK now if you had a choice?	如果你是一位 21 歲的年輕創業家，如果有選擇，你現在會在英國創業嗎？
And if not, why not? And if so, why?	如果不會，為什麼？如果會，又是為什麼？
I would u exist without and try to exist without borders.	我會選擇無國界的經營模式。
What does that mean practically?	在實踐中這意味著什麼？
In other words, put aside all of these things that we're talking about to a large extent and say where are the places in the world that are that have the vibrancy that have the capital that have u the elements that are needed.	換句話說，在很大程度上拋開我們討論的這些限制，去尋找世界上具有活力、資金和必備要素的地方。
There are bright spots in the world and I'd want to be around the most intelligence doing the most cutting edge terrific things and be global.	世界上有亮點地區，我想與最頂尖的智慧人才在一起，做最前沿、最出色棒的事情，並走向全球。
In other words, don't be just stuck in a provincial place.	換句話說，不要侷限於偏遠地方。
Go to these places that are what I might call almost renaissance states that are good things are happening and these qualities exist that not only good education, the civility, the vibrancy, be in those places, but be able not just in one.	去那些我可以稱之為「復興之州/國」的地方，那裡正在發生美好的事情，具備優質教育、文明素養和活力等特質；身處這些地方，且不限於單一地點。
There's a Chinese, not a Chinese Hong Kong expression, I think that a smart rabbit has three holes.	有一個香港（中國）成語，我想是「狡兔三窟」。
And what it means is like if the one place that you go to u it may not be the place that u remains the best place there are riskier places.	它的意思是，如果你去的一個地方可能無法持續保持最佳狀態，就會存在風險更高的情況。
The riskier places are those that don't have the elements I mentioned the education the civility the productivity all of those things.	風險更高的地點是那些缺乏我提到的教育、文明素養、生產力等要素的地方。
So would you would one of those places for you be the United Kingdom?	那麼對你來說，英國會是其中之一嗎？
Cuz me and my friends talk about this sometimes.	因為我和我的朋友有時會討論這個。
you know, I've got I've invested in lots of companies there and the founders come to me and ask me these kinds of questions, which is is based on everything that's going on with this turmoil and the big cycle.	我在那裡投資了很多公司，創辦人們跑來問我這類問題：基於當前動盪和大週期背景……
Um, what's going to happen if I continue to build my company here in the United Kingdom?	如果我繼續在英國發展我的公司，會發生什麼？
I think that u I think the United Kingdom as it goes through these difficulties is as a whole a more difficult place.	我認為英國在經歷這些困難時，整體而言是一個更具挑戰的地方。
And then there are pockets of it that when they're operating are in their pockets very stimulative u having those elements just like in the United States there are places and pockets that have those however they're within a system and a place that is u not u not healthy.	但其中也有些局部區域具備高度刺激性和優勢要素（就像美國也有這類局部熱點一樣），然而它們處於一個並不健康的整體體系和環境中。
The real dominant narrative we're seeing, as I said this week, is that because there's this problem, you said there's not enough money.	正如我本週所說，我們看到的主流說法是：因為存在這個問題，你說資金不足。
The the most popular narrative, which I think is supported by about 70% of people, is that people over 10 million net worth, there's this is something proposed by one of my former guests, Gary Stevenson, who did a documentary last week, should have a 2% wealth tax.	最受支持（約 70% 人贊同）的說法是：對淨資產超過 1000 萬的人徵收 2% 的財富稅（這是我的前嘉賓 Gary Stevenson 在其紀錄片中提出的提案）。
My preferred way is to stop people from hoarding enormous amounts of wealth for enormous amounts of time.	我更傾向的方法是阻止人們長期囤積巨額財富。
That's my That's basically my preferred method.	這基本上是我更推薦的方法。
There's also the wealth tax method.	此外還有財富稅方法。
There's also capital gains as a method.	還有調整資本利得稅的方法。
There's a lot of different ways here.	這裡有很多不同的途徑。
There's a lot of different ways here.	這裡有很多不同的途徑。
But you have to deal with the problem of if you do not do not tax very wealthy individuals and very wealthy families, their share of the pie will obviously grow over time and they will and they are as we are watching squeezing out ordinary families.	但你必須解決這個問題：如果不向極其富有的人士和家族徵稅，他們的財富份額顯然會隨著時間推移而擴大，並正在擠壓普通家庭。
And this is kind of it would raise I think it I think they said $20 billion or something like that but it would raise some money.	這大約能籌集 200 億美元左右的資金。
Um so the the big debate in the country at the moment is yeah do we one way to raise money would be this wealth tax.	所以目前國內的大論戰焦點在於：徵收財富稅是否為籌措資金的途徑之一。
Proponents of that or I should say u people that are against that say people will leave.	反對者則指出富人會因此流失逃離。
If you took all of the money of people in the in the top, not in other words, taxed at a 100% you're not going to come up with enough money because it's such a small percentage of the population and but and but in addition, yes, the people will leave.	即使你沒收頂層人群所有的錢（即 100% 徵稅），也無法籌集到足夠資金，因為這部分人口比例太小；而且，富人還會離開。
Then you change the laws so that you make them retroactive.	接著政府會修改法律使其具備追溯效力。
In other in other words, you say the law means you're going to be taxed as of a past date so that if you leave u we're going to get your money or then you put in capital controls.	換句話說，法律規定按過去的日期追溯徵稅，即使離開也要扣留資產，或者實施資本管制。
All of this has happened before.	所有這些在歷史上都發生過。
Wealth taxes would be new.	財富稅將是新型嘗試。
Wealth taxes are administratively difficult because how do you value all this wealth that is not easily valued and such things?	財富稅在行政管理上非常困難，因為如何評估所有難以變現/估值的資產？
But yes, what you've just said is u well recognized.	但是的，你剛才所說的情況已得到了廣泛認同。
You mentioned earlier that this big cycle takes place, this one here on the front of your book, The Changing World Order, happens roughly every every 80 years.	你之前提到的大週期（即你著作《應對變化中的世界秩序》封面上的這個）大約每 80 年發生一次。
Yes.	是的。
It's like health.	這就像健康狀況一樣。
What I mean is it varies on average, let's say, what is the life expectancy of a person?	我的意思是平均而言有所變化，就像人的平均壽命一樣。
But life expecties or how long people live vary.	但個人的具體壽命長短各不相同。
I wouldn't u u emphasize too much u the amount of time exactly as much as I would u look at your condition.	我不會過分強調確切的時間長短，而是關注具體狀況指標。
Where are we in this u at the moment in terms of the symptoms or markers of the next big	從下一次大變革的徵兆或指標來看，我們目前處於什麼位置？
well we're over in this vicinity over here u you know we're on the and when we say that u the US the UK number of other countries are u later in that cycle when there's the loss of the things that we've been talking about overindebed is more overind indebtedness, the loss of power.	我們目前正處於這個區域附近。美國、英國和許多其他國家處於週期的後期，出現了我們一直在談論的特徵：過度負債加劇、實力衰退。
So, we're in the collapse period of the decline.	所以，我們正處於衰退期的崩潰階段。
Yeah, the decline. I'll call that the the decline.	是的，衰退期。我稱之為衰退階段。
And you've studied this for how long in terms of	關於這一點，你研究了多久？
500 years of the cycles for 500 years and in a number of countries.	研究了多個國家 500 年來的週期律。
It's in that book.	都寫在那本書裡。
These are objective measures.	這些是客觀的測量指標。
This is not subjectivity.	這絕非主觀揣測。
You can measure these things.	你可以定量測量這些指標。
You can measure the level of indebtedness.	你可以測量負債水平。
You can measure the u education levels and the competitiveness.	你可以測量教育水平和競爭力。
You can measure all these things in clearly measurable numbers that show the health just like a physical exam.	你可以像體檢一樣，用清晰可量化的數據來測量所有這些健康指標。
When there's a new world order because of this decline through history over the last 500 years, has there ever been two superpowers that emerged as the dominant superpowers or is it just tends to be one?	在過去 500 年的歷史中，當這種衰退導致新世界秩序誕生時，是否曾出現過兩個主導的超級大國，還是通常只有一個？
In the past, prior to World War I, there was no	在過去，第一次世界大戰之前，並不存在統一的全球秩序。
World War I happened and then World War II happened because the world came together and there was one world essentially.	第一次世界大戰和第二次世界大戰爆發後，世界緊密聯繫在一起，本質上形成了一個全球體系。
Before that, there were regions and they would have the different powers and you could have a powerful China or India could be very powerful at the same time as the UK or u the Dutch and whatever would be powerful and they weren't in that one world.	在那之前存在各個區域，各自擁有不同的強國：中國或印度可以非常強大，同時英國或荷蘭等也很強大，但他們當時並不在同一個全球一體化體系中。
And the basic issue is when you have one world and you have disagreements, you're always going to have disagreements.	根本問題在於，當形成一個全球體系且產生分歧時（分歧必然存在）……
How do you resolve those disagreements?	你如何解決這些分歧？
Cool.	好的。
War.	戰爭。
Okay. It does.	好的，確實如此。
Maybe it's not physical war.	也許不是實體戰爭。
Maybe it's whatever it is, but there's a disagreement.	無論形式如何，這是一種衝突分歧。
Where does the border lie?	邊界劃在哪裡？
Where does this Okay.	權力範疇在哪裡？好的。
The rulesbased order is a theoretical u conception of the United States coming out of World War II because there's the idea of how do you govern and you have representatives and you have them in the United Nations and so on and you know that's a nice theory but the reality is when that comes and is inconsistent with power which wins power or of that rulebased system.	「基於規則的秩序」是二戰後美國提出的一個理論構想，旨在通過聯合國代表等架構進行治理；這是一個美好的理論，但現實是，當規則與實力發生衝突時，贏得勝利的是實力而非規則體系。
So by nature to answer your question it means tends to be a dominant power.	所以回答你的問題，本質上往往會形成一個主導大國。
We will see China and I think the United States I think the most likely beneficial outcome is that it becomes more regional.	我們將看到中國和美國，我認為最有益的可能結果是走向區域化。
Okay.	好的。
China has no desire to occupy control other countries for for various cultural reasons and things that I can go into and and they their basic objective is to not be cut off, not be harmed and then also be as good as they can be and and be competitive following their approach to a system which is very much a top-down controlled system that's an extension of Confucianism which is like the family and that's what they want to do.	出於文化等多方面原因，中國無意佔領控制其他國家；他們的核心目標是不被切斷封鎖、不遭受傷害，並在其自上而下（儒家家庭模式延伸）的體系下實現發展和競爭力。
You can possibly have this region thing, but you're not going to have the dominant world power.	未來可能會形成區域格局，而非單一的全球主導霸權。
If that's the case, you have some chance that there's a great conflict, but I think that u there's enough wisdom in a sense to u not want to go there.	如果是這樣，雖然存在爆發重大衝突的可能，但我認為雙方有足夠的智慧來避免走走向全面衝突。
So, there's always there's pretty much always been a superpower through different cycles.	所以，在不同的歷史週期中，幾乎總是有一個主導的超級大國。
There's been one dominant power through these historical cycles.	在這些歷史週期中一直存在一個主導力量。
You're saying that you believe in the next decline there won't be one dominant power which has been the US for the last 80 odd years.	你是說，你認為在下一次衰退轉折中，不會再出現過去 80 年來由美國單獨主導的局面。
There will be two because you you can't foresee there being a conflict at the scale that would result in one dominant power.	將會出現兩強並立，因為你預測不會爆發導致單一強國獨霸的大規模全面衝突。
The strength of each country will be how they take care of themselves.	每個國家的實力取決於他們如何治理自身。
u are they going to be strong or are they going to be weak based on how they educate their population, how they spend their money, how they manage themselves, those will determine the relative powers of those countries, right?	他們是強是弱，取決於如何教育國民、如何分配資金、如何自我管理，這些將決定國家的相對實力，對吧？
And so that'll be true certainly for the United States and China.	對美國和中國來說均是如此。
And so as we go forward, how will those systems deal with those issues in the best possible way?	未來，這些體系將如何以最佳方式應對這些問題？
and that I would say as long as the United States remains a power but it's in it has a risk of u of having a very bad set of circumstances through debt and conflict and these things that erode it'll be from within that those things u particularly u could change that relative balance of power and similarly if China managed itself badly that could change that given that if they both remain powerful entities then what you're going to see is u I believe more the recognition that there are regions okay just like the there's the Americas okay and that becomes heavily much more the region and where that spills over and then there's the region u around China the u AP apac countries u and th that region and that there would be the development within those regions and I do believe the avoidance of the big war that would be very u detrimental.	我想說的是，只要美國保持強國地位，但若因債務和內部衝突等問題從內部遭受侵蝕，就會改變相對的力量平衡；同樣，如果中國內部管理不善，也會改變平衡。如果兩者均保持強大，我們將看到區域化格局（例如美洲區域以及中國周邊的亞太區域），各自在區域內發展，並避免爆發極具毀滅性的大戰。
There are issues like the Taiwan issue, but the Taiwan issue will be handled by in my opinion most likely not militarily in the sense that u there will be a great war between the United States and China over it, but in the pressures that are going to be created so that there is a reunification of China.	存在像台灣這樣的問題，但在我看來，台灣問題極可能不會通過中美之間的全面軍事大戰來解決，而是通過塑造各種壓力動態來推進。
You mentioned conflict though.	不過你提到了衝突。
The United States are at war with Iran and it seems to be a war that they can't seem to get out of.	美國深陷與伊朗的衝突/對抗中，似乎難以自拔。
this is going to have an impact presumably on lots of things you've described here, but also the feelings of people at home as you know we we face the prospect of the United States sending troops on the ground into Iran because this the straight of Husse is going to become this choke point to global energy and they're going to you know and what does Trump do about that?	這推測會對你描述的許多事情產生影響，也會影響國內民眾的情緒。如你所知，我們面臨著美國可能向伊朗派遣地面部隊的前景，因為霍爾木茲海峽將成為全球能源的咽喉要道，而川普對此會怎麼做？
He can't it's like Vietnam.	他騎虎難下，這就像越南戰爭。
He can't leave or else he is going to look bad.	他不能撤退，否則會顯得無能軟弱。
um he if he stays he looks bad.	如果留下來，局勢也會很糟糕。
midterms coming up.	中期選舉即將到來。
What's your thoughts on this war in Iran?	你對這場伊朗局勢/衝突有何看法？
Do you think it was a bad idea?	你認為這是個壞主意嗎？
Do you think it was a good idea?	你認為這是個好主意嗎？
Do you think it was Do you think it's Does it play a role in all of this stuff here?	你認為它在這一切中扮演了什麼角色？
The US police this war in Iran, I think it here's what's happening internationally.	關於美國介入伊朗這場衝突，以下是國際上的真實動態。
I I I get speak to world leaders and and so on and and particularly u in Asia.	我與世界各國領袖（特別是亞洲領袖）進行過交流。
there's a a recognition that u the United States u doesn't want to u fight a war.	大家普遍意識到，美國其實並不希望打一場全面戰爭。
So the the lipmus test is u do you who controls the straight of Hermos and that the United States u because the population in the United States is worried about u gas prices and losing people and and they want it to be all over fast that u you can fight a war that way.	試金石在於誰掌控霍爾木茲海峽；美國公眾擔心油價暴漲和人員傷亡，希望一切快速結束，但你無法以這種心態去贏得戰爭。
And so what you have is the United States will not show up in Asia.	因此結果是，美國將無法在亞洲展現強硬威懾。
What does that mean? Show up in Asia.	「在亞洲展現威懾」是什麼意思？
In Asia, there are all these countries who believe that the United States was going to play an important role as a counterbalancing influence for power in the region because China's the dominant power and the others are much less power.	在亞洲，所有這些國家原本相信美國將發揮重要的平衡力量作用，因為中國是主導力量，而其他國家實力較弱。
And so the United States being in there was going to balance those power.	美國的存在本應用來平衡這些力量。
And because they have a military presence, the idea of having bases in their countries was believed to be that will help that happen.	由於美國有軍事存在，在這些國家建立基地原本被認為有助於實現這一平衡。
Okay.	好的。
Now there's a recognition that not only they might show up but maybe these bases can become liabilities and that the u Chinese have a lot of influence and power under that set of circumstances.	現在大家意識到，美國可能不會全力介入，這些基地甚至可能成為負擔，在這種情況下，中國擁有巨大的影響力和實力。
For example, u chips come out of Taiwan.	例如，晶片源自台灣。
We could imagine what would happen if they blockaded chips leaving Taiwan.	我們可以想像，如果台灣的晶片出口被封鎖會發生什麼。
Okay, you'd see the world stock markets crash.	好的，你會看到全球股市暴跌。
you would see terrible, terrible things.	你會看到極其可怕的連鎖反應。
That represents a non-military power.	這代表了一種非軍事的實力威懾。
Just even the ability to threaten that.	甚至僅僅是具備發出這種威脅的能力。
Say the Chinese say for 5 days we're not going to have it.	假設中國宣佈封鎖 5 天。
What will the United States literally do?	美國實際上又能做什麼？
Or if you go to U countries like the Philippines, which has a treaty with the United States that's like a NATO treaty, how would the American public react that we're going to send u military, you know, aircraft carriers and so on into the Philippines to stop the Filipinos from being picked on by the Chinese.	或者像菲律賓這樣與美國簽有類似北約條約的國家，如果美國要派遣航母進入菲律賓以阻止中國，美國公眾會對此如何反應？
I mean, so what you're seeing is a change that is very similar to the British Empire in terms of u being u weaker.	我的意思是，你所看到的是一種與大英帝國衰落極其相似的力量削弱變革。
I remember a time not long ago that u the United States would just have to almost hint to a country that we would like this thing it it to be this way or you would like it to do that that and they would do it because of the American power.	我記得不久前，美國只需要向某個國家稍微暗示「我們希望事情這樣處理」，對方就會照做，這全憑美國的威懾力。
not just military power but economic power and so on.	這不僅是軍事實力，還有經濟實力等。
Well, as you're seeing that power being eroded, for example, China is a larger trading partner with most countries than u the United States is or capital turning up.	然而，正如你所看到的，這種影響力正在被侵蝕，例如中國與大多數國家的貿易往來規模已超過美國，資金流向也在改變。
So, u these things matter.	所以，這些因素至關重要。
So, you're you're seeing that kind of a shift in power.	你正在見證這種權力轉移。
I'm a global macro investor and my goal is to be as accurate as I possibly can.	我是一名全球宏觀投資者，我的目標是盡可能保持精準客觀。
I can't let biases stand in my way of doing that.	我不能讓立場偏見阻礙我的客觀分析。
So I look at statistics and measures and indicators and so on.	所以我觀察統計數據、測量指標等。
So what I'm saying is clear.	所以我所說的非常明確。
It is you know it's apparent it's mechanics.	這是顯而易見的客觀規律機制。
So what does that mean for the Iranian situation then? Does it mean that?	那麼這對伊朗局勢意味著什麼？
Well, it means that it's a very very difficult situation.	嗯，這意味著這是一個極其棘手的困境。
What what is all through history and the Chinese know this very well because their way of having a war is conveyed in the art of war and also the tribute system as they call it.	貫穿整個歷史（中國人對此非常清楚，因為他們的戰爭藝術體現在《孫子兵法》和朝貢體系中）：
You cannot easily go in and control a country for a long period of time occupying there are you know 90 million Iranians and they will be there no matter what happens.	你無法輕易進入並長期佔領控制一個國家，那裡有 9000 萬伊朗人，無論發生什麼他們都會在那裡。
Now the question is, do you have what it takes to u take control of the straight of Hormos by way of example and allow in other words do you allow that to be in the hands of the Iranians or do you not and are you willing to pay the price to be able to u put yourself in the position which means take a lot of pain and then u enforce that for the I don't know forever and ever future because it's not just take control today.	現在的問題是：你是否有能力掌控霍爾木茲海峽？換句話說，你是允許它掌握在伊朗人手中，還是不允許？你是否願意付出巨大的代價和痛苦，並在未來無限期地維持這種控制？因為這不僅僅是今天的控制問題。
It means okay how is that going to go on and what does that mean in these other locations?	這意味著這將如何持續下去？這對其他地區又意味著什麼？
Does the United States they're going to do the same thing with the Chinese and Asia?	美國對亞洲和中國也會採取同樣的做法嗎？
They're going to do the same thing all around probably.	他們可能在各地都會面臨類似困境。
Okay. So what does that mean?	好的。那這意味著什麼？
Okay. A change in the world order.	好的。世界秩序的變革。
It sounds like a big mistake.	聽起來像是一個重大失誤。
Oh yeah, it it was a big mistake.	哦是的，這是一個重大失誤。
And also what it did is it shown a light on the vulnerability before it didn't it wasn't apparent	而且它暴露出原本隱蔽不彰的脆弱性。
vulnerability of the United States in being able to enforce you know when there's always the threat we'll come in there u the strait is open we're not dealing with this and there's always the threat that the United States will u remain control and that would be true in Asia and other places.	原本大家以為美國總能隨時介入並保持控制，這種威懾在亞洲和其他地方同樣存在。
Now a light bulb goes off.	現在真相大白了。
In other words, the like the British in u the Suez Canal, we didn't realize.	換句話說，就像當年大英帝國在蘇伊士運河危機中一樣，大家之前沒有意識到。
Now we realize	現在我們意識到——
that threats no longer work	恐嚇威脅不再起作用。
that that power no longer exists.	那種霸權實力已不復存在。
I guess we shall see.	我想我們拭目以待。
Ray, thank you so much for u committing this season of your life to being more of a public educator because your books here that have been read by millions, millions and millions of people and the videos that you produce that have been watched by tens and tens, hundreds of millions of people u have been so formative for so many of us understanding the world in simplified ways.	雷，非常感謝你將人生的這個階段奉獻給大眾教育；你的著作被數以百萬計的人閱讀，你製作的影片被數以億計的人觀看，對我們許多人以簡明方式理解世界產生了深遠的影響。
And what I love about the work that you do is you explain the world through principles versus tactics and strategies which are a little bit more ephemeral than understanding the underlying principles.	我非常喜歡你工作的地方在於，你通過「原則」而非短暫的戰術策略來解釋世界，原則比戰術更具持久性。
And I think it does two things.	我認為這起到了兩個作用。
It helps us understand the world in ways that are allow us to see past the current short-term moment that we're in.	它幫助我們以超脫當前短期局勢的眼光去理解世界。
But it also helps us think generally u from a more macro perspective about how all these things connect together.	展現了從更宏觀的角度思考所有這些事物如何相互聯繫。
And I think that's broadly applicable.	我認為這具有廣泛的適用性。
The idea of like principled thinking is broadly applicable to all areas of life, whether it's your relationships or your business or your health, whatever it might be.	基於原則的思考理念廣泛適用於生活的各個領域，無論是人際關係、事業還是健康。
u you've really written the definitive books on this subject matter.	你確實寫出了這個領域的權威著作。
I've got all of them here.	我這裡有你所有的書。
u, I mean, Principles is the first one that I ever read, but then I watched all of your your videos on your YouTube channel which u explain it in animated ways.	我的意思是，《原則》是我讀的第一本書，隨後我看了你 YouTube 頻道上所有的動畫講解影片。
Those are absolutely stunning videos.	那些影片簡直太棒了。
They're unbelievably stunning videos.	精彩得令人難以置信。
And I It's funny cuz, you know, I've watched a lot of videos, YouTube videos in my life, but there's some that I have just never forgotten.	很有趣的是，我看過無數影片，但有些影片令我終生難忘。
And your book and your video are about the book on your YouTube channel, which I'll link to below, are a video on YouTube that I've just never forgotten because it suddenly helped me understand the bigger picture.	你的著作和你頻道上的影片（我會在下方附上連結）是我永遠不會忘記的，因為它突然幫我理解了整體的大局觀。
in a way that I don't think I would have ever understood otherwise.	以一種我原本可能永遠無法理解的方式。
There's no I didn't go I didn't go to my history classes in school.	我以前在學校不上歷史課。
u I'm never going to read history books necessarily.	我也不一定會去讀厚重的歷史書。
So u that video you made but also the book itself really helped me understand there's always a bigger picture.	所以你製作的影片以及書籍本身，真的幫助我理解了事物的全貌與大局。
And funnily enough I go looking for the bigger picture and the cycles should I say in all the other facets of life and psychology because when you're dealing with humans you are dealing with cycles.	巧合的是，我開始在生活和心理學的其他各個層面尋找大局和週期規律，因為當你與人類打交道時，你就是在與週期打交道。
That's what I've I've come to realize and you can find them and spot them everywhere and then prepare for them accordingly.	這是我逐漸意識到的，你可以在任何地方發現它們，並做好相應準備。
So, thank you for the wonderful work that you do in this regard.	非常感謝你在這方面所做的卓越工作。
I'll link all of these books below.	我會在下方附上所有這些書籍的連結。
Highly recommend reading them and they're not for buffins or super smart people.	強烈推薦閱讀，它們不是專門給專家或極聰明的人寫的。
They're for everybody and they're written in such a way.	它們適合每一個人，其寫作方式通俗易懂。
So, I appreciate that.	非常感謝。
Thank you for saying that.	謝謝你這麼說。
I find the videos are very digestible.	我發現這些影片非常容易吸收理解。
One, how the economic machine works.	第一個，《經濟機器是怎樣運行的》。
It's I think it's 30 minutes and it's been watched by 140 million people	長度約 30 分鐘，已有 1.4 億人次觀看。
and and people get it.	而且大家都能理解。
So I think it's my responsibility to try to communicate also in a clear simple digestible way.	所以我認為我有責任嘗試以清晰、簡單、易懂的方式進行溝通。
So I like to take a concept that's in a book and make it into a 30 which is to try to pass along what might be helpful to people.	所以我喜歡把書中的概念製作成 30 分鐘的短片，傳遞對人們有幫助的知識。
So thank you.	所以謝謝你。
Thank you for committing your the season of your life to that.	感謝你將人生的這個階段奉獻於此。
I really appreciate it and so do many millions of my listeners.	我個人深表感謝，我的數百萬聽眾也是如此。
So thank you.	非常感謝你。
YouTube have this new crazy algorithm where they know exactly what video you would like to watch next based on AI and all of your viewing behavior.	YouTube 推出了一種強大的全新演算法，能根據人工智慧和你的觀看行為，準確預測你接下來想看的影片。
And the algorithm says that this video is the perfect video for you.	演算法顯示這支影片對你來說是完美的選擇。
It's different for everybody looking right now.	對於現在觀看的每個人來說都不盡相同。
Check this video out and I bet you you might love	點擊觀看這支影片，我敢打賭你一定會喜歡它。